Public opinion braced for hard times

Our ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday suggests that the coalition’s honeymoon continues, with Conservative support holding, the Liberal Democrats up and Labour down, but all within the expected margins of random error, and each within one point of last month’s election result.

What is significant, before Tuesday’s Budget, is that the voters seem to be prepared for some hard choices. Taking child benefit away from “better-off families” is more popular than taking winter fuel allowance away from “better-off elderly people” – a tribute to the sentimentality of public opinion. (Older people themselves are more likely to agree with restricting winter fuel allowance.)

Interestingly, there is some support for David Miliband’s call for the emphasis in deficit reduction to be shifted in favour of tax rises rather than spending cuts, although this is the kind of finding that is subject to what I call a strong “tree” bias (“Don’t tax you, don’t tax me, tax that man behind that tree,” as Andrew Dilnot, formerly of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, once surprised me by chanting in a television interview).

The last question suggests that attempts by Labour leadership contenders to suggest that the Government has an ideological drive to cut spending, for which it is softening up public opinion, will not work.

Full tables are at ComRes.

Update: The Conservative figure should read -1 rather than +1. Apols.

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