The coalition Budget’s toll on jobs
Interesting to see the Treasury projections for estimated public and private sector redundancies as a result of the Budget cuts in The Guardian. The estimate is 1.1m to 1.3m jobs to go by 2015 (500,000 to 600,000 in the public sector, 600,000-700,000 in the private sector as a result of lost government contracts etc).
Many of those jobs would, of course, have gone under Labour’s plans too. But we can now make a rough calculation of the number of these job losses which can be attributed to George Osborne’s decision to cut further and faster.
Labour planned spending cuts of £52bn by 2014-15. The coalition say they will cut £84bn. That’s a 61% increase. So assuming that the coalition job losses by 2015 will be 61% greater than under Labour’s plans, that works out as between 417,000 and 493,000 more jobs losses as a result of Mr Osborne’s avoidable austerity.
The Treasury point to the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast of overall unemployment falling over the five years. But this is based on the assumption that the private sector will start creating jobs at a faster rate than the public sector is cutting them. But such a surge in private sector job creation is far from certain. The public sector job losses, on the other hand, will certainly materialise if Mr Osborne swings the axe in the manner he laid out in the Budget.
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