David Miliband squeaks a win

Shamik Das and Will Straw at Left Foot Forward have complained about the result of the “primary” vote among members of the Edinburgh East Labour Party. Sheila Gilmore, the MP, nominated Diane Abbott, and the party itself nominated Ed Miliband, but its members voted by a margin of 39.4 to 34 per cent for David Miliband.

Das and Straw point out that only around 300 people voted (turnout of 27 per cent), which is irrelevant, but also that the ballot was carried out under a single-preference X-vote, instead of allowing members preferences, as the actual leadership election will do next month.

Which is quite funny, as is the photograph of Florida hanging chads (right) with which they illustrate their comments.

But the substantive point that they make is wrong. They claim:

The YouGov poll of Labour Party members last month indicated that Ed Miliband won 61 per cent of second preferences from supporters of Diane Abbott, Ed Balls, and Andy Burnham. If this held true in the Edinburgh [primary] it would have been enough to give Ed Miliband the narrowest of victories, possibly a margin of just one vote.

I think they have miscounted. The YouGov poll suggested that supporters of Abbott, Balls and Burnham (ABB) split 51 to 33 per cent in Ed Miliband’s favour if asked, “If you had to choose between David and Ed Miliband, which would you support?” Six per cent said, “Not sure,” and nine per cent said, “Neither”.

Those nine per cent should not then be counted in the next stage (which I think is the mistake Das and Straw make), although the six per cent don’t knows should be allocated in proportion, giving Ed M 55 per cent, David M 36 per cent and nine per cent dropping out.

Applying these figures to the Edinburgh East ballot gives:

David Miliband 39.4% + 9.5% transfers from ABB = 48.9%

Ed Miliband 34% + 14.5% = 48.5%

ABB 26.3%

In other words, the Edinburgh East ballot would have given David Miliband “the narrowest of victories, possibly a margin of just one vote”.

As you were.

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