Labour contest number-crunched

John Rentoul

11284171 149503s 300x200 Labour contest number crunched The full tables for YouGov’s alarming poll of Labour Party members and Labour-supporting trade unionists are here, here and here.

I am not going to pretend that they do not make grim reading for supporters of David Miliband, who trails his brother (right) by the statistically insignificant but psychologically important margin of two points on the projected final count, 49 to 51 per cent.

One small point, however. YouGov’s figures suggest that 34 per cent of eligible trade unionists have already voted, with a further 40 per cent saying that they “will definitely vote”. These figures compare with the 8 per cent who actually voted in the 2007 deputy leadership election (which Harriet Harman won by the even smaller margin of 50.4 to 49.6 per cent), and with the 19.5 per cent who voted in the last leadership election in 1994.

I have no idea what explains that difference, or whether the explanation favours either of the leading candidates. But it ought to sound a note of caution.

Photograph: Teri Pengilley

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  • Mike Smithson

    John – I think that the turnout figure is based on the proportion of those sampled by YouGov which is not the same as the total of eligible TU voters.

  • takeoman

    Rentoul getting ready to cry “foul” if his choice loses.

  • Jane18

    Years in the wilderness will follow. I am sorry but Ed Miliband has targetted the core vote and moved to the left to win the support of the trade unions. Yes he may win the leadership but he will never be PM. We do not like those who distance themselves from previous policies and tries to please everyone. It is just not possible. Only David Miliband presents as a PM in waiting. Ed will never get my vote.

  • AlanGiles

    People are sick to death of being patronised and spoken down to: David Miliband would be a total turn-off for ex-Labour voters and floating voters. Being lectured by a 43 year old carbon copy of Blair is not the answer. Like Balls, he would also be a very devisive within Labour reopening the Blair/Brown warfare.

    D Miliband was also caught up in the expenses scanda. Ed was not

  • porkfright

    David Miliband presents as a PM in waiting? Which planet would that be on, then? Tormance?

  • takeoman

    Is that the royal “we” that you so liberally sprinkle about in your posts.

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