Six-Point Lead for Yes Campaign in AV Referendum
ComRes for the The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror tomorrow asked the official question drafted by the Electoral Commission (the Government’s earlier version, right) for the referendum in May:
At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead?
Don’t know 34%
(Answers weighted by likelihood to vote.)
This compares with recent leads for Yes of 17 points (Angus Reid) and 6 points (ICM), using the official wording; and for No of 9 points (YouGov), using a question that tries to explain the difference between the two systems.
A further question suggests that the Yes vote could increase:
I could be persuaded to support changing the voting system in the forthcoming referendum in May when I have heard more about the arguments for and against.
Don’t know 21%
Among people who don’t know how they would vote in the referendum question above, 60% agree that they could be persuaded to vote Yes and only 7% disagree. If we add these potential supporters of AV to those who already do agree, the Yes vote climbs to 58%, assuming the No vote remains at 27%, and don’t knows decline to 15%.
Voting intention figures for a general election show the Labour lead strengthening and the lowest Lib Dem figure recorded by ComRes since it started polling in 2004:
Con 36% (-1)
Lab 40% (+1)
LD 10% (-1)
Others 14% (+1)
(Change since last online ComRes poll for IoS/SM 19 December.)
Electoral Calculus shows a Labour majority of 40 and the Lib Dems reduced to just 14 seats.
At a time of major public spending cuts the Government should be much tougher in clawing back bankers’ bonuses through the tax system.
A Labour government under Ed Miliband would be better at protecting people’s jobs.
Don’t know 32%
Only 13% of Lib Dem voters agree.
Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party.
Agree 22% 17%
Disagree 35% 32%
Don’t know 43% 50%
Andrew Hawkins, Chairman of ComRes, commented: “Ed Miliband is not effectively reaching across party divides either: 20% of people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 agree, 30% disagree. When we compare this with the fact that 35% of 2010 Lib Dem voters would now switch to Labour, it appears that this support for Labour is despite Ed Miliband’s leadership, not because of it.”
Nick Clegg is turning out to be a good leader of the Liberal Democrats.
Agree 28% 26%
Disagree 49% 49%
Don’t know 23% 25%
David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister.
Agree 38% 38%
Disagree 43% 41%
Don’t know 19% 21%
Hawkins: “Current Lib Dem voters are fairly positive, on 50% agreement compared to 30% who disagree. Perhaps this offers comfort to those arguing for Coalition candidates in some seats?”
Methodology note: ComRes interviewed 2,006 GB adults online 12th-13th January 2011. Data were weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.Tagged in: comres, opinion polls
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