The GCC intervention: giving Bahrain relative stability and the space to negotiate its future

A great deal has been written about the waves of protest and revolution in parts of the Middle East; much of it uses the powerful tool of analogy to shed light on the situation and to open up the debate. Is the ‘Arab Spring’ analogous to Prague 1968, Tehran 1979, Berlin 1989 or even Paris 1789? No one can agree but it is certainly fuelling café conversation all over the region. The reference to historical comparisons and more importantly the ensuing debate is helping to make sense of what is happening here in the Middle East, even if it can’t give easy answers.

Last month, in the wake of deaths and missing persons at the hands of security forces and increasingly volatile anti-government protests, the King of Bahrain called for help from the GCC to restore order. The GCC responded by sending Saudi troops and Emirati police officers into the country and the situation is now one of stalemate; the main opposition newspaper Al Wasat was suspended having been accused of inciting sectarian trouble, some protesters are in prison and emergency law is in place.

But you only have to glance over to Libya to know it’s better than a civil war.

The situation in Bahrain is particular; the ruling family and most of those in power are Sunni Muslims and it is estimated that they make up just over 30% of the Islamic population whilst just over 60% practice Shi’a Islam. This Shi’ite majority is protesting against the lack of equal access to housing, healthcare and government jobs; they feel disempowered and the events happening in the rest of the region have drawn attention to the fact that something can be done about it.

Now for the historical comparison.

Back in 1968 a civil rights movement stirred in Northern Ireland. It began as a social protest with the Catholic population demanding equal access to public housing, one man one vote, an end to discrimination in local government and the gerrymandering of district boundaries that limited the impact of the Catholic vote. A year later British troops were sent to the region to restore order in the face of increased sectarian violence with their permanent establishment being seen by some as keeping the peace and by others as an occupation. Decades of troubles and violence followed and only this last week a Northern Irish policeman, Ronan Kerr, was killed by a car bomb.

The point is this: GCC intervention has given Bahrain relative stability for the moment and with that the space to negotiate its future. The Crown Prince has said that he is ready and willing to continue the reforms of his father by making the country a full constitutional monarchy with greater powers for an elected political assembly and by tackling corruption and sectarian tension. In truth, he needs to get on with it. And to be allowed to get on with it. There is no alternative but to push forward with reform; if the rights of a significant group are not adequately represented then there is the risk of long-term violence and instability.

No one situation is exactly the same as another but, as Timothy Garton Ash has pointed out, historical comparisons offer an extensive toolkit of experience. If the Crown Prince of Bahrain or the opposition leaders are in any doubt about what has to be done they could reflect on the feelings of Ronan Kerr’s family at this time and allow the lessons from decades of troubles to stand as a painful reminder of how hard they must strive to  get it right. The alternative is not an option for anyone.

Recent Posts on Notebook

• World Refugee Day: Thousands of displaced Syrians live on a knife edge
• The Chagos conspiracy
• Ultramarathon man: Fear vs The running power
• Barking blondes: Who's smarter - cats or dogs?
• Diary of an aid worker: The truth about gold mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo

• http://pulse.yahoo.com/_XUJBNV2MUKF67AUSWAPFJBLRJM sabber

  down with the despot , off with their heads and anyone else who cheats the democratic rights of their fellow citizens

• Dravazed

  The majority (Shia) are “…a significant group” in this article. Do I detect some spin here?

• pateris

  Quelling dissent with bullets and martial law, closing down Alwasat, the only opposition newspaper, emprisoning human rights activists without trial, torturing peaceful protesters to such an extent that some die in custody; all this is stability?.. and it fuels cafe conversation?! I don’t think much of Nikki Schreiber’s “analysis” of the situation in Bahrain. She seems singularly ill-informed and/or partisan.

• mariam97

  We really appreciate your contribution, the Arab media is not transparent or free, therefore, your voice is very important to us. The government is cleansing the country from the shiiat, they consider every one of us as criminal, the fanatic sunnies are using the current condition in the country to implement their sick policy, which based on hearted and discrimination, many people at all positions lost their lives and many lost their jobs only because the wanted some political rights and equality which are taken for granted in many countries.

• mariam97

  We really appreciate your contribution, the Arab media is not transparent or free, therefore, your voice is very important to us. The government is cleansing the country from the shiia, they consider every one of us as criminal, the fanatic sunies are using the current condition in the country to implement their sick policy, which based on hearted and discrimination, many people at all positions lost their lives and many lost their jobs only because the wanted some political rights and equality which are taken for granted in many countries.

• http://coencana.myopenid.com/ Coencana

  I am very disappointed to see such bad reporting in the Independent. How did the editors let this article pass, especially in the light of the horror stories coming out of Bahrain cited in so many other comments? And BTW, it is wrong to assume that readers will know what GCC stands for at first glance. Best practice is to spell out acronyms the first time, and for good reason. A Google search turned up Gulf Cooperation Council in 12th place at the bottom of the page after GNU Compiler Collection, Glendale Community College, General Chiropractic Counsel, and Global Corporate Challenge, amongst others.

• http://twitter.com/BahrainiScribe Isa | عيسى

  The crackdown hasn’t opened up space for political progress, it has shut it down….
  Most opposition leaders are in jail with the government set to disband the final remaining two parties shortly (minister of justice already on it). the discussion about the CP’s move towards a constitution monarchy ignores the fact that he is no longer in power and has no-one to negotiate with (it was a sound-bite/rhetoric for liberal media). the PM is emphatically back in control and has dismantled civil society (union leaders sacked, main secular party disbanded, all opposition political leaders detained, etc…). Saudi style rule with a puppet parliament is set to ensue, with rising tensions in the back-streets of Bahrain… Northern Ireland & Apartheid South Africa here we come!!

• http://twitter.com/freebahrainis Ali Hassan

  I’m very surprised to find such an article on the Independent. There are powers backing up a dictatorship that is oppressing the majority, and you talk about space for negotiations? Negotiations make sense when the confrontation is fair. Here the government is killing civilians and you talk about negotiation?

• http://www.facebook.com/people/Fatima-All/100001650258020 Fatima All

  the pic u r putting it seem in Pakistan not in Bahrain
  they r not bahrainies .. be accurate please