“No” campaign extends lead to 6 points

John Rentoul

vote No campaign extends lead to 6 pointsOur ComRes poll in The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror tomorrow shows the No vote opening up a six-point lead in the referendum campaign.

Since January we have asked the official question, as it will appear on the ballot paper on 5 May:

At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead?

_____________ Jan     Feb     Mar     Now
Yes                            36%    40%    34%    37%
No                              30%    30%   37%    43%
Don’t know             34%    30%    28%    21%

These figures have been adjusted to take into account people’s likelihood to turn out to vote. We also asked people a specific question about voting in the referendum:

If there are no local or national elections in my area, it is hardly worth going to vote in the referendum on the voting system on the 5th of May.

Agree: 15%

Disagree: 68%

These “disagree” figures closely match those saying that they are “absolutely certain to vote” in a general election tomorrow.

We also tested referendum voting motivation by asking whether people agreed or disagreed with these statements:

My opinion of Nick Clegg will affect how I vote in the referendum on the voting system on the 5th of May.

Agree: 30%

Disagree: 52%

My opinion of David Cameron will affect how I vote in the referendum on the voting system on the 5th of May.

Agree: 37%

Disagree: 49%

This suggests that the “Yes” campaign could get more out of suggesting that a “Yes” vote would be a vote against David Cameron, in the way that the “No” campaign have urged people who do not like Nick Clegg to vote “No”.

Voting intention

Conservative 35% (-2)
Labour 39% (-1)
Lib Dems 10% (-1)
Other 15% (+3)

Figures are compared with Independent on Sunday/ComRes poll, 13 March.

This would translate into a  Labour majority of 42 in the House of Commons. Worth noting continued pain for Lib Dems. Just 6 in 10 voters who “think of themselves as Lib Dems” would vote for the party now.

(Data in both tables do not add up to 100% due to rounding.)

Leader ratings

We asked if people agreed or disagreed with the following statements:

Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party.

______________ Dec      Jan       Now

Agree:                         17%      22%      24%

Disagree:                      32%      35%      38%

Don’t know:                  50%      43%      37%

Nick Clegg is turning out to be a good leader of the Liberal Democrats.

______________ Dec      Jan       Now

Agree:                         26%      28%      24%

Disagree:                      49%      49%      55%

Don’t know:                  25%      23%      21%

David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister.

______________ Dec      Jan       Now

Agree:                         38%      38%      37%

Disagree:                      41%      43%      46%

Don’t know:                  21%      19%      17%

The Coalition, one year on

Thinking back to the general election last year, I wish I had voted differently.

Agree: 16%

Disagree: 72%

Of 2010 Lib Dem voters, 37% wish they’d voted differently.

The coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats has probably worked out better than the Conservatives trying to go it alone.

Agree: 38%

Disagree: 37%

The coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats has probably worked out better than Labour and the Liberal Democrats trying to govern together.

Agree: 40%

Disagree: 36%

I am glad that Gordon Brown is no longer Prime Minister.

Agree: 64%

Disagree: 21%

More than one third of Labour voters (36%) are glad that Gordon Brown is no longer PM.

After nearly a year in government, the Coalition’s record is disappointing.

Agree: 56%

Disagree: 29%

Liberal Democrat voters (41%) are twice as likely as Conservative voters (20%) to say that the Coalition’s record is disappointing.

A Labour government under Ed Miliband would be better at protecting people’s jobs.

Agree: 32% (Jan 30%)

Disagree: 40% (Jan 38%)

Don’t know: 27% (Jan 32%)

The Liberal Democrats should pull out of the coalition if they don’t get the changes they want to the NHS reorganisation.

Agree: 41%

Disagree: 34%

The fact that David Cameron went to Eton makes it harder for him to be a good Prime Minister for the whole country.

Agree: 30%  (Dec 2009 20%)

Disagree: 52% (Dec 2009 70%)

Don’t know: 18% (Dec 2009 10%)

Defence policy

It is right for the UK to take military action against Colonel Gaddafi’s forces in Libya.

Agree: 41% (35% in March)

Disagree: 39% (43% in March)

The cuts in defence spending announced last year were smaller than in many other government departments, but they went too far and should be looked at again.

Agree: 55%

Disagree: 22%

Royal wedding

William has made a good choice of bride in Kate Middleton.

Agree: 70%

Disagree: 3%

I plan to watch some or all of the Royal Wedding live on television.

Agree: 48%

Disagree: 38%

Women (62%) are far more likely than men (35%) to say they plan to watch on TV.

Methodology note:  ComRes interviewed 2,003 GB adults online between 13 and 15 April 2011. Data were weighted to be representative of all adults and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.

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  • Ron Broxted

    100% think Erkin Guney was fitted up by the police. Also that Smiley Culture died in dubious to say the least circumstances.

  • davdos

    It is perfectly natural that Smiley Culture stabbed himself through the heart in a police raid. And it is perfectly natural that I shall vote yes to AV.

  • Mrs_Cake

    My first choice in votes is that Erkin Guney was the victim of foul play, failing the 50% margin my second choice is that Smiley Culture was. If that fails my third is Dr Kelly after that it must be LancashireLad who’s recent abrupt demise caught us all by surprise.
    Doncha just love this AV system.

  • Clunkee

    The No vote will win hands down if it adopts the slogan: VOTE YES FOR AV AND GET NICK CLEGG.

  • stonedwolf

    Question: will it be good for the Liberal Democrats?

    Answer: it depends, but probably yes. How are you voting?

    Response: it depends, but in that case probably no.

  • stonedwolf

    Hobson’s Choice: which Old Nick do you want, Griffin or Clegg?

    Griffin, the man who would kick out every last Muslim from Europe.

    Clegg, the man who would help him if the votes came out right.

  • LancashireLad

    Comment removed

  • LancashireLad

    This isn’t going very well, I have been trying to explain how you post comments in italics and bold but the moderator is not helping.

    Forget using notepad as explained above as Discus seems to accept HMTL tags directly
    you need to surround the text that you want to be bold or italics with HMTL tags for italics the tag is i and for bold its b

    the format is words you want to format

    remove the commas and replace tag with i or b depending on the effect that you want

  • LancashireLad

    Comment removed

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