Cameron should ignore the calls for an early election: the Tories need the liberals

The electorate punished the Liberal Democrats in the local elections. But the UK is becoming more liberal. And this is why the Tories, despite calls for Cameron to go the polls now, should stay in coalition with the Liberals.

Mass education and immigration over recent decades has contributed to an eruption of liberal values. In schools, universities and workplaces, people increasingly socialise with those from different cultures and with different lifestyles.

Just look at the changes in the annual British Social Attitudes survey. In 1987, 70% of people thought homosexuality was wrong. Today, 36% do – still too high, with homophobic bullying and crime a continuing problem, but a transformational shift in the right direction.

In contrast to the 1980s, most people now think there is no problem with premarital sex, divorce can be positive, and unmarried parents are just as good as married ones. Such sentiments are stronger among twenty and thirtysomethings.

Ostensibly, attitudes towards immigrants have hardened: over the past decade, there has been a rise in the numbers saying immigration should be reduced. But research by Professors Anthony Heath and James Tilley show that this hides great support among Britons for multiculturalism and the outlawing of discrimination against minorities. Again, younger people express greater tolerance.

So the future really is liberal. There is a wealth of academic evidence which shows a positive relationship between higher education levels and stronger liberal values such as greater endorsement of civil liberties, freedom of speech and equality of opportunity for minorities. As participation in higher education continues to grow, with a record 45% of all 18-30 year olds in the UK now going to university, the great liberal wave cannot be halted.

This poses problems for the long-term electoral success of the Conservative Party. Detoxification of the Tory brand is not yet complete. To appease the powerful Tory right at the last election, archaic messages on marriage, immigration and Europe were trumpeted, alienating a swelling liberal electorate in urban marginal seats, particularly in London. Hence why Conservatives failed to win an overall majority.

Indeed, analysis published this week by Lord Ashcroft of 10,000 voters finds that the prime reasons for why people who were considering voting Conservative in the last election but eventually did not were that they thought the party did not share their values and would not look after the poor and vulnerable.

Following the impressive local elections results, it’s not just the Tory right, but some Tory modernisers who are now starting to think that the coalition should end and an early election called now. Accordingly, this could strengthen Project Cameron. If Cameron won, critics on the right would be silenced and public service reform would not need to be diluted to satisfy Liberal Democrat politicking.

Tempting. But the liberals will squeal: the endurance of the coalition is the only chance they have of showing the electorate they are a serious force, and pluralist politics works. Already, the Lib Dems want to air differences between the two coalition partners more loudly and frequently. Lib Dem strategists are planning to turn up the volume to maximum on the return of the nasty party if Team Cameron called an early election.

This would help keep socially-minded floater voters away from the Tories again. Doubters will remain doubters, depriving Cameron of a majority. Ashcroft’s analysis shows that, for the Tories to ever secure a majority again, they need to reach out beyond their core vote and attract these voters. But, one year into government, many of these doubters have become more sceptical of the party, and in fact would be more likely to vote for the Liberal Democrats. Even a significant number of those who voted Tory for the first time in 2010 are turning their backs on the party

An overwhelmingly majority of these critical floater voters would prefer a Coalition government to a Tory one. The best strategy for the Conservatives therefore is to stick with the liberals, try to minimise the airing of public differences, and hope for some sort of merger in the years ahead. This would reinforce the identity and political power of the liberal-right. That way, Conservatives can appeal to an increasingly liberal electorate and ensure success in twenty-first century Britain.

Ryan Shorthouse is spokesman for Bright Blue, which campaigns for progressive conservative policies

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