ComRes poll: Tories draw level with Labour

We have a ComRes opinion poll in tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror. It shows the Conservatives level with Labour for the first time since June, and contains little cheer for the Liberal Democrats at their annual conference in Birmingham.

Only 23% agree the Lib Dems have “done a good job of moderating Conservative policies”; 24% agree they are a “credible party of government” as a result of the Coalition; and 68% expect them to do “much worse at the next General Election than they did at the last one”.

How would you vote in an election tomorrow?*

Conservatives       38% (-)

Labour                    38% (-2)

Lib Dem                     11% (-)

Others                      13% (+2)

Change since IoS Poll 21 August.

Just 47% of people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 would vote for the party now.

David Cameron is turning out to be a good prime minister

______________ Dec      Jan       Apr      May      June     July      Aug    Sept

Agree:                         38%      38%      37%      39%     37%      33%      34%     33%

Disagree:                      41%      43%      46%    43%      44%     45%      48%     46%

Don’t know:                  21%      19%      17%     18%     19%      22%      18%     21%

Net                               -3         -5         -9        -4        -7        -12       -14       -13

Older people are more likely than younger people to think that David Cameron is turning out to be a good prime minister – 42% of people aged 65 and over agree compared to 22% of people between the age of 18-24.

Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party

______________Dec      Jan       Apr      May      June     July      Aug   Sept

Agree:                         17%      22%      24%      22%     18%      27%     24%      20%

Disagree:                      32%      35%      38%    39%      45%     41%      44%     44%

Don’t know:                  50%      43%      37%     39%     37%      32%      32%     36%

Net                              -15        -13       -14       -17       -27      -14       -20      -24

Men are more negative about Ed Miliband than women: 51% of men disagree that he is turning out to be a good leader compared with 38% of women.

Nick Clegg is turning out to be a good leader of the Liberal Democrats

______________Dec      Jan       Apr      May      June     July      Aug   Sept

Agree:                         26%      28%      24%      21%     20%      22%      22%     20%

Disagree:                      49%      49%      55%    56%      57%     53%      55%     53%

Don’t know:                  25%      23%      21%     24%     23%      25%      23%     27%

Net                              -23        -21       -31       -35       -37       -31       -33       -33

One in five (21%) Liberal Democrat supporters think that Nick Clegg is not turning out to be a good leader.

I don’t really know what David Cameron stands for

Agree               42%

Disagree           45%

Don’t know       12%

I don’t really know what Ed Miliband stands for

Agree               57%

Disagree           28%

Don’t know       14%

A third of Labour voters (33%) agree that they don’t know what Ed Miliband stands for.

I don’t really know what Nick Clegg stands for

Agree               61%

Disagree          26 %

Don’t know      13%

A third of Liberal Democrat voters (34%) agree that they don’t know what Nick Clegg stands for.

The Liberal Democrats have done a good job of moderating Conservative policies in the Coalition

Agree               23%

Disagree           47%

Don’t know       31%

66% of Lib Dem voters agree, compared to 33% of Conservatives and 11% of Labour

The Coalition Government’s policies share the burden of hard times fairly so that we are “all in it together”

Agree               27%

Disagree           52%

Don’t know       21%

There is a trend by age – just 17% of 18-24 year olds agree, compared with 42% of people aged 65 or over.

Being in coalition with the Conservatives has shown the Liberal Democrats to be a credible party of government

Agree               24%

Disagree           52%

Don’t know       24%

Just a third (35%) of people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 agree that being in the Coalition has shown the Liberal Democrats to be a credible party of Government.

I expect the Liberal Democrats to do much worse at the next General Election than they did at the last one

Agree               68%

Disagree           11%

Don’t know       21%

53% of Liberal Democrat supporters agree.

I would have voted differently at the election if I had known that the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives would enter into a coalition

Agree               22%

Disagree           56%

Don’t know       22%

46% of people who voted Lib Dem at the last election agree

The Coalition Government is right to try to reduce the number of MPs in Westminster from 650 to 600

Agree               56%

Disagree           13%

Don’t know       31%

77% of Conservative voters agree, compared with 67% of Liberal Democrats and 41% of Labour

Methodology note: ComRes surveyed 2,000 GB adults online on 14-16 September 2011. Data were weighted to be demographically representative and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.

*The actual voting intention question asked by ComRes is: “If there was a general election tomorrow, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or some other party?” The squeeze question for those who say they are unlikely to vote, or who say they don’t know or won’t say is: “If it were a legal requirement for you to vote, which party do you think you would probably vote for Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrator some other party?”

Recent Posts on Eagle Eye

• Cameron's possibly winning position
• "Clearing the Battlefield"
• UKIP Surges to Record High
• Poll alert
• Was An Alien Space Fish Just Filmed Outside The Space Station?

• Guest

  There can be little doubt that the Tories owe their improved poll ratings to David Cameron’s championship of the plucky Libyan rebels attempting to wrest the country from the jaws of the Mad Dog of Tripoli, with concomitant payback for the insults and injuries visited on Britannia over the years.

  Two years after toppling Sunny Jim in the 1979 general election, opinion polls rated Margaret Thatcher the most unpopular prime minister ever. Then Galtieri obligingly gave her the chance to assume the role of avenging angel. The Sainted Hilda never looked back.

  All Nick Clegg needs to revive his fortunes is a good war. The Coalition should declare Syria in violation of UN resolutions (Assad must have breached one or two) and therefore open to military intervention on humanitarian grounds, with Mr Cameron deferring to Mr Clegg in the role of liberator. Watch his popularity soar as he jets into Damascus to accept the plaudits of the recently downtrodden. Sorted.

  Incidentally, congratulations to John Rentoul on his showing in the Total Politics Top 50 UK political blogs awards for 2011, up from 157 to 37. And how many there are! So much to read, so little time.

• taxpayer20

  Labour are a policy free zone and are becoming marginalised.In 1999 after sticking to Tory pledges we were in surplus but there did need to be controlled spending to improve services.The rest is history and we and the next generation will pay for it.They had their chance and blew it.

• http://twitter.com/mikeknoth mikeknoth

  THESE POLLS ARE POINTLESS UNLESS THE ACTUAL QUESTIONS ARE ALSO PUBLISHED COMRES DIDN’T ASK ME DID THEY ASK YOU DEAR READER?IF TORIES WERE GAINING THEIR MEMBERSHIP WOULD NOT BE DESERTING THE SINKING SHIP

• http://twitter.com/mikeknoth mikeknoth

  MEANWHILE OUR PRAT PM SHOULD BE RUNNING THE COUNTRY NOT TRYING TO GAIN ASSOCIATION WITH TOM DALEY AT THE DIVE POOL I DON’T WANT TO SEE HIM THERE WHY CAN’T THE BEEB GIVE US A REST FROM POLITICIANS?