ComRes poll: Alex Salmond’s week

Labour maintain a narrow lead in the first ComRes poll after the main party conferences, for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror:

Conservative       37% (-1)

Labour                   39% (+1)

Lib Dem                 10% (-1)

Others                    14% (+1)

Change since the last ComRes online poll in September. Despite much commentary recently, and David Cameron’s promotions of Justine Greening and Chloe Smith, the gender gap is not significant: the Labour lead is 39% to 36% among women (see below).

Of our other results, the most striking, as the Scottish National Party prepares for its annual conference this week, is the rise in support for Scottish independence, now backed by majorities in both Scotland and the rest of the UK.

Scotland should be an independent country

Agree: 39% (+6 points since May 2011)

Disagree: 38% (-4)

In Scotland:*

Agree 49% (+11)

Disagree 37% (-9)

Women (29%) are more likely than men (18%) to say that they don’t know if Scotland should be independent or not. Social group DE are most likely to say that they agree (44%).

In other questions, Labour have made no progress on the economy, despite bad news on growth and unemployment.

I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy

Agree: 30% (-1 since August)

Disagree: 49% (-1)

Men are more likely than women to agree – 34% of men compared to 26% of women. There is a trend by age – just 21% of 18-24 year olds agree that Cameron and Osborne can be trusted, compared to more than two in five people aged 65 or over (43%).

I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy

Agree: 18% (nc)

Disagree: 55% (+1)

Not much change in our leader rating questions, but Nick Clegg is recovering a little:

David Cameron is turning out to be a good prime minister

__________________Dec      Jan       Apr      May      June     July      August  September          October

Agree:                         38%      38%      37%      39%     37%      33%      34%     33%     34%

Disagree:                      41%      43%      46%    43%      44%     45%      48%     46%      47%

Men (38%) are more likely than women (30%) to agree.

Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party

__________________Dec      Jan       Apr      May      June     July      August  September        October

Agree:                         17%      22%      24%      22%     18%      27%     24%      20%     22%

Disagree:                      32%      35%      38%    39%      45%     41%      44%     44%      50%

Half of all people disagree that Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader – this has been slowly increasing since December 2010. Fewer than half of Labour voters (48%) agree that Ed Miliband is turnout out to be a good leader of the party.

Nick Clegg is turning out to be a good leader of the Liberal Democrats

__________________Dec      Jan       Apr      May      June     July      August   September         October

Agree:                         26%      28%      24%      21%     20%      22%      22%     20%     24%

Disagree:                      49%      49%      55%    56%      57%     53%      55%     53%      55%

Nick Clegg’s approval rating continues to be fairly stable, slightly increasing since August: 57% of Lib Dem voters think that Nick Clegg is turning out to be a good leader – a quarter (26%) disagree.

We also sought to investigate whether Cameron does have a problem with women voters:

The Labour Party has the right policies for childcare

Agree: 23%

Disagree: 30%

Women’s views are not much different from men’s (agree 22%, disagree 28%). Notably, around half of all people from all groups don’t know.

The Government has the right policies for childcare

Agree: 18%

Disagree: 39%

People are less likely to agree that the Government has the right policies for childcare than the Labour Party – this is true of people of all ages, and all social groups. However, women disagree by 41% to 17%, a much bigger gap than for the Labour Party’s policies.

Women are bearing the brunt of the Government’s policies to close the deficit

Agree: 33%

Disagree: 39%

There is a significant gender and class difference: just 20% of men agree, compared to 45% of women, and people in social group DE are more likely to agree that women are bearing the brunt.

David Cameron’s attitude to women is sexist

Agree: 24% (27% of women and 20% of men)

Disagree: 43%  agree

It is wrong that the pensions age is being raised faster for women than men

Agree: 51%

Disagree: 34%

Again, there is a gender divide – a third of men (34%) agree compared to two thirds of women (67%).

Finally, we asked about gay marriage:

Same-sex marriage should be legal in the UK

Agree: 51%

Disagree: 34%

Don’t know: 16%

Women (57%) are more likely to agree than men (44%). Younger people are more likely than older people to think that same-sex marriage should be legal in the UK – 63% of 18-24 year olds compared to just 34% of people aged 65 or over. Agreement is greatest in Scotland (55%)* where there is a consultation currently running on this issue.

Methodology note: ComRes surveyed 2,004 GB adults online 12-13 October 2011. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of the population and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.

*The sub-samples in Scotland are small: n=176; May 2011 n=183.

Photograph: Rex

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