Immigration has no effect on unemployment

“Controlling immigration is critical or we will risk losing another generation to dependency and hopelessness”, Iain Duncan Smith said last year, arguing that substantial reductions in immigration were necessary if his reforms, designed to move people from welfare to work, were to be successful.  And, just yesterday, Migration Watch published a report highlighting the “remarkable coincidence between the rise in youth unemployment and the huge surge in immigration from Eastern Europe over the last eight years.”

In fact, most published studies suggest that immigration has little or no impact on employment or unemployment.  Today NIESR publishes new research supporting that conclusion.  For the first time, rather than using survey data, we use actual data on National Insurance number registrations – the best and most comprehensive measure of people moving to this country to work.  We look at the number of registrations for each local authority and see whether there is any relationship between that and changes in the number of people claiming unemployment benefit; as far as we can tell, there isn’t any.  Unemployment didn’t rise faster (or fall more slowly)  in areas where migration was higher; and that doesn’t change if we control for other factors that might make a difference.

Another issue is the impact of immigration during the recession.  Previous research was dominated by the long period during which the UK labour market was doing well, for both natives and migrants. So it is reasonable to question whether things might have changed during  a period when the competition for jobs was much more intense.   But again, we can’t find any evidence of an adverse impact during periods of low growth or the recent recession.

What about the Migration Watch report?  As it says, betwen 2004 and 2011 an extra 600,000 Eastern European workers entered the UK labour force, while youth unemployment rose by  400,000. But the vast majority of that rise in youth unemployment took place during 2008 and 2009.  During that period, the number of Eastern European workers actually fell.   A “remarkable coincidence” – or simply exactly how you would expect the labour market to respond?   Nor is this the only hole in Migration Watch’s analysis, as Matt Cavanagh points out here.

This is not the first time that Migration Watch have played fast and loose with the evidence. An earlier report, still on their website, argues that because (for example) Manchester has more young unemployed people than Windsor, and also more migrants, this demonstrates a relationship.   The point that Manchester just has more people is conveniently ignored.

The question of what impact immigration has on native British workers, especially the young, is an important one.  Economic theory alone does not provide the answer; careful empirical research, and responsible debate, is required. Ours is not the last word, but so far the evidence suggests that other factors are far more important.  As the Prime Minister has rightly said: “it’s crude and wrong to say immigrants come to Britain to take all our jobs.”

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• Doncastrian

  It’s a lie Mr Portes. I’ve seen discrimination against Brits first hand. Who is paying you to come out with this nonsense?

• Freddie88

  If these conclusions are correct, then are we to assume that if the 600,000 immigrants had not moved to the UK, then the jobs they they took, would not actually have existed.

  This would require a situation where no British person seeking employment, ever lost out in the jobs market, because an immigrant got the job instead.

  This seems highly unlikely.

• http://www.metafore.com/ wheeliebin

  Where is this report published today? I can’t see one on their website.

• http://pulse.yahoo.com/_LIV3DOA4DIHFBCQCQ64BWAY3AY Darvenne

  This is how the Big Lies begin…look the old adage is that most employers will not openly discriminate against natural citizens over immigrants…Ohhh now they are trying to convince us that it is not possible?…Neo-Liberalism still propagating the myths that they wish us to believe since 1945?…remove a recalcitrant or not obliging workforce with a more malleable and grateful, but condescending workforce. Why do you think immigrants learn to smile..before you!.I know plenty of immigrants in europe and even they perceive it ?.always harder on your own people, for everyone who rules around the world.

• http://pulse.yahoo.com/_LIV3DOA4DIHFBCQCQ64BWAY3AY Darvenne

  As the Prime Minister has rightly said: “it’s crude and wrong to say immigrants come to Britain to take all our jobs.”
  no they are unable to take them all!.though the U.K with France and the USA engineer their constant pursuit to undermine other countries,or de-stabilize them, so they can get fresh candidates for migration daily..so the Prime Minister should say” Its right and bloody true we promote our policies to de-stabilize economies around the world to create the right conditions so that we can receive a abundance of new immigrants daily to keep our workforce constantly in a state of flux” ..whoops did I say to much”  

• http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=513209068 Leo Godwin

  This is an interesting subject for me as I am currently looking for a new job. I’m English but I moved to Spain when I was quite young and have recently moved back, so in a way I feel like an ‘economic migrant’ in that, though I speak the language and share the ethnicity, I still feel foreign in that the culture and practices are unfamiliar to me, it’s a culture shock. The first thing I would say is: don’t hate the player, hate the game. Obviously people from poor countries are going to try and move to richer ones if the opportunities are better. That’s all part of Capitalism, is it not? I saw the Daily Express, or some equally reactionary paper, had as its headline “Immigrants steal British jobs”. This headline seems flawed to me. Are they British jobs? If they are public sector, they belong to the state. If they are private sector, they belong to a private business. ‘Britain’ doesn’t own jobs, employers do. Roughly 20% of workers are public sector, that seems set to drop, so the overwhelming number of employers are in private industry. If employers prefer, for whatever reason, to hire foreigners, than surely they should be the target of Rightists anger and not the workers just looking to get by in the world? Which brings me to another point. Do they ’steal’ jobs? While you could make a case for a preference of hiring locals in the public sector, the vast majority of jobs are not owned by ‘Britain’ but by, as I said, private businesses, free to employ whom they like. Those job do not ‘belong’ to anyone but the employer, so at least in terms of the private sector, I don’t think you can accuse a foreigner of stealing something which in material terms doesn’t ‘belong’ to ‘Britain’ in the first place. As I said, don’t hate the player, hate the game. If you’ve got an issue, take it up with the ones who set the rules, government and private businesses, not the workers who are just playing by them. I don’t feel any particular loyalty to any country, my motivation to work is for my own benefit, so am I stealing a British job? I don’t feel anymore patriotism for Britain than any Pole or Pakistani worker, yet in the eyes of the Rightists, I apparently have some special metaphysical right to work here that my foreign colleagues don’t have. I think this argument is as much about Blut und Boden rather than economics. Maybe they should ask themselves WHY these companies favour foreign workers, or hell, why not join the 5.5 million Britons living and working abroad?

• http://www.yahoo.co.uk/ Firozali A.Mulla

  Jonathan in the corrupt states? Today 12th January 2011, Zanzibar was taken by the main land Tanganyika to form Tanzania; President Karume wanted all the Asians out and the Emir of Muscat back to Muscat.  Karume wanted the inter marriages between Asians and African so all Asian left the island. It is just like our great nation and our Navy to rescue Iranian sailors who could be aboard a future vessel that would fire upon our Navy. The Iranian government have threatened the US. No threat should be brushed off. A constant vigil over a brave act should to calculate and weighed before the United Nations. The US should make sure that this act should be advertised as an act of the humanitarian quest for peace between nations. The US Battle group should be recognized and the individual personnel aboard the US vessels. The US should not take this lightly. It is a chance to show the peaceful intent of the United States to the world. Not a pessimist but no one then took notice of this. I love the Intel coming pack more in the cell etc. Makes the pages of Steve, run faster. Obama’s friend leaves him; The politics of USA is all over the TV and the net. Sort gets boring but I love the jokes. We will not be above the recession until 2014. .
  hypochondriac
  noun: One who is excessively and chronically preoccupied with imaginary or innocuous symptoms as indicators of some serious disease.
  ETYMOLOGY:
  From Greek hypochondrios (abdomen, which was believed to be the seat of melancholy), from hypo- (under) + khondros (cartilage [of the breastbone]). Earliest documented use: 1599.
  USAGE:
  “‘Gadhafi was described as a hypochondriac who insisted that all examinations and procedures be filmed and then spent hours reviewing them with physicians whom he trusted,’ the ambassador reported.”Joshua Norman; U.S. Envoy to Libya Wikileaks’ First Casualty?; CBS News (New York); Jan 5, 2011.
  A THOUGHT FOR TODAY:
  Remorse is a violent dyspepsia of the mind. -Ogden Nash, poet (1902-1971) I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA

• http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1079441309 Melody Samina Gold

  lol

• http://www.thakerlaw.com/ immigration lawyer NYC

  There is a consensus among economists that immigrants do not affect unemployment or wages very much, except for low-skilled workers. Negative effects of immigrants on jobs are limited to those workers with less than a high school education.