Tories take first lead with ComRes since October 2010

John Rentoul

camtouch Tories take first lead with ComRes since October 2010Our ComRes opinion poll in tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror, is the first from that company to show a Conservative lead since October 2010:

Conservatives 39% (+1)

Labour 38% (-)

Liberal Democrats 10% (-1)

Others 13% (-)

The changes since last month’s IoS/SM poll (published 22 January) are small, but this is confirmation that the Conservatives have enjoyed a sustained four-point boost in the polls since David Cameron refused to sign the Eurozone Plus deal in Brussels in December.

The Martin Baxter calculator suggests that on current boundaries Labour would be 10 seats short of a majority and the Lib Dems would be reduced to just 11 seats. It is also worth noting that, despite a lot of nonsense about Cameron’s problem connecting with women voters, 40% would vote Conservative, compared with 36% of men.


Good news for Ed Miliband, who wants the NHS to be “a defining issue” of the next election. Voters remain sceptical about more involvement of private companies, unconvinced by the Prime Minister’s sincerity and have shifted slightly to thinking the NHS would be safer under Labour than under the Government:

Private firms should have more involvement in the delivery of NHS services Agree: 27% Disagree: 43% Don’t know: 30%

David Cameron is a sincere supporter of the principles of the NHS Agree: 31% Disagree: 41% Don’t know: 28%

Unsurprisingly, Conservative voters are more likely to agree than Labour voters – 73% and 10% respectively. However, one in five Conservative voters (21%) and a third of Lib Dems (35%) answer ‘don’t know’.

The NHS would be safer under Labour than under the Conservative- Liberal Democrat coalition Agree: 36% (+2) Disagree: 34% (-3) Don’t know: 30% (+1) (Change since ComRes, June 2011)

A quarter (26%) of Lib Dem voters agree.

The Budget

Taking these two statements together, the voters narrowly oppose tax cuts:

The Chancellor should make tax cuts a priority in the forthcoming Budget Agree: 37% Disagree: 33% Don’t know: 30%

People in lower income groups are keener than those in higher income groups on tax cuts. DEs agree by 40% to 26%, while ABs disagree by 41% to 34%.

The Chancellor should not make any tax cuts until the country’s public debt is better under control Agree: 41% Disagree: 32% Don’t know: 27%

While support for higher taxes on incomes over £150,000 has fallen since 2010:

The top rate of income tax at 50p in the pound on earnings over £150,000 a year should be raised to 60p in the pound Agree: 48% (-6) Disagree: 34% (+5) Don’t know: 18% (+1) (Change since ComRes October 2010)

Of Labour voters 61% agree, compared with 52% of Lib Dems and 38% of Conservative voters.


The public sector should not pay bonuses to its staff who are paid more than £40,000 a year Agree: 71% Disagree: 14% Don’t know: 15%

Younger people are less likely to agree than older generations (59% of 18-24 year olds, 79% of 55-64 year olds, and 84% of those aged 65 and over).

Abu Qatada

The Government should ignore the ruling of the European Court of Human Rights and deport the Islamist cleric Abu Qatada immediately Agree: 73% Disagree: 10% Don’t know: 17%

Nine in ten Conservative voters (89%) agree, compared with two thirds of Labour and Lib Dem voters (67% for each).

David Cameron

Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Please select those that you think apply to David Cameron. [Please select all that apply.]

Out of touch with ordinary people 49%

Tends to talk down to people 32%

Has strong moral principles 30%

Patriotic 26%

Puts loyalty to friends ahead of doing the right thing 24%

Too inflexible 22%

Narrow-minded 21%

More honest than most politicians 21%

Inexperienced 20%

Is more interested in foreign affairs than in running the country 19%

Good in a crisis 18%

Down-to-earth 15%

Is good on the detail of policy 12%

Seems to have similar views to those of Tony Blair 10%

None of these 10%

Scots are more likely than other Britons to say that David Cameron is ‘out of touch with ordinary people’ (62%), that he ‘tends to talk down to people’ (44%), ‘puts loyalty to friends ahead of doing the right thing’ (36%), and that he is ‘too inflexible’ (34%).

The Prime Minister is most likely to be viewed by Tory voters as having ‘strong moral principles’ (66%), ‘patriotic’ (56%), ‘more honest than most politicians’ (51%), and ‘good in a crisis’ (45%).

Half of Lib Dem voters believe that Cameron is ‘out of touch with ordinary people’ (48%).

ComRes interviewed 2,014 GB adults online on 15 and 16 February 2012. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.

Photograph: Reuters

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  • John Ruddy

    Sorry to say, thats not what the tables on Com Res’ website say. Labour still has a 1% lead.

  • porkfright

    ComRes randomness. Bring back the man with the Swingometer.

  • TheOnlyWayIsNorfolk

    Abu Qatada and the ECHR? This is the same ECHR that ruled 4 years ago in S & Marper vs UK that ZaNuLabours policy of retaining innocent folks DNA was illegal? Yet is still not implemented? Just checking. Off to the Dutch Antilles for a mini-break.

  • John Rentoul

    Yes, apologies. There was a mistake on the tables. ComRes say that the figures here are correct. The tables have been removed and will be put back with the correct party labels shortly. 

  • TheOnlyWayIsNorfolk

    Don’t give up the day job.

  • Mike Homfray

    So the two main parties are pretty much neck and neck and the LD’s are going to be decimated at the next election. That’s been the case for a while. But its who votes for who where which will matter.

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