Poll: Labour regain lead; lose trust on economy

Labour has regained the lead in our ComRes poll for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror.

Con       37% (-2)

Lab        40% (+2)

LD          10% (-)

Others   13% (-)

The figure in brackets shows the change since last month’s IoS online survey, which was the first to show a Tory lead since October 2010. The slight shift to Labour is consistent with YouGov’s recent trend towards wider Labour leads, although our figures for the two larger parties are exactly the same as in ComRes’s telephone poll for the daily Independent on 28 February.

We asked if people agreed or disagreed with eight options for George Osborne, the Chancellor, in the Budget next week. Most of the measures about which there has been speculation are popular, except for abolishing the 50p income tax rate, and the “tycoon tax” of a minimum income tax rate of 30 per cent.

Raise the starting point of income tax from £7,475 to £10,000

Agree: 81% Disagree: 8%

Older people are more likely to agree than younger people – 87% of people aged 55 and over do so compared with 55% of people aged 18-24. Voters for all three main parties show similar levels of support for this.

Abolish the 50 per cent tax rate on incomes over £150,000

Agree: 21% Disagree: 58%

A majority of Conservative voters (51%) disagree that the 50 per cent tax rate should be abolished, as do 67% of Labour voters and 70% of Lib Dem voters.

Introduce an annual “mansion tax” on properties worth over £2m

Agree: 64% Disagree: 20%

The majority of Conservative voters (59%) agree with an annual “mansion tax” compared with 66% of Lib Dems, and 72% of Labour voters.

Introduce a minimum income tax rate of around 30 per cent, that everyone should pay, regardless of tax reliefs and schemes to reduce tax liability

Agree: 12% Disagree: 63%

Nick Clegg’s proposal for a “tycoon tax” is unpopular with supporters of all parties. Liberal Democrat sources were steering journalists to a level for the “tycoon tax” of between 20 and 30 per cent, so we asked about 30 per cent; presumably respondents did not like it because it is higher than the 20 per cent basic rate and they thought it might hit them.

Continue to pay child benefit to people paying the 40 per cent tax rate (over £42,475 a year), rather than cutting it as planned

Agree: 25% Disagree: 58%

Cut duty on petrol and diesel before cutting any other taxes

Agree: 74% Disagree: 15%

Younger people are less likely to agree than older people – 65% 18-24 year olds and 64% of 25-34 year olds agree, compared with 83% of people aged 65 and over. This cut is supported by 80% of Conservative voters, compared to 74% of Labour and 65% of Lib Dem voters.

Introduce a minimum price for a unit of alcohol

Agree: 44% Disagree: 41%

Supported by 51% of Conservative voters and 56% of Lib Dems.

Freeze the duty on beer in order to help save Britain’s pubs

Agree: 54% Disagree: 27%

We also asked if people agreed or disagreed with more general statements about the economy. A pair of statements about trust on the economy produced poor figures for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls:

I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy

Agree: 29% (-1 since November) Disagree: 49% (+4)

I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy

Agree: 15% (-6 since November) Disagree: 59% (+9)

The net score for Cameron/Osborne has gone from -15 in November to -20, while that for Miliband/Balls has gone from -29 to -45.

Another pair of statements on the Budget judgement showed a marked shift in favour of tax cuts since last month:

The Chancellor should make tax cuts a priority in the forthcoming Budget

Agree: 45% (+8 since February) Disagree: 27% (-6)

The Chancellor should not make any tax cuts until the country’s public debt is better under control

Agree: 30% (-11 since February) Disagree: 43% (+11)

So net support for tax cuts has risen from +4 in February to +18, while support for prioritising debt reduction has fallen from +9 to -13.

The government is not doing enough to get the economy growing and unemployment down

Agree: 62% Disagree: 20%

Finally, we asked about the Prime Minister’s character:

I don’t really know what David Cameron stands for

Agree: 50% (+8 since September) Disagree: 36% (-9)

David Cameron is a conviction politician

Agree: 24% Disagree: 25% Don’t know: 50%

David Cameron does a good job of representing Britain abroad

Agree: 41% Disagree: 34%

Women are more likely to say “don’t know”; once we adjust for this, women are more likely to say that David Cameron is a conviction politician and that he does a good job of representing Britain abroad.

Methodology note: ComRes interviewed 2,010 GB adults online 14-16 March 2012. Full tables at ComRes.

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• Tracy Connell

  That’ll be a coalition lead actually – 37 + 10!

• http://twitter.com/reddeviljp jaydeepee

  what a pile of poop.The country’s on its arse and 20% think the gov’t is ‘doing enough’. What a useless shower.

• Kugelschreiber

  It’s very interesting finding out what other people are thinking, although of course it’s very annoying when they don’t agree with me.

  It reminds me of when, years ago, I used to be addicted to watching Opportunity Knocks with its CLAPOMETER & SINGING DOGS etc.

  Although of course political opinions are a less frivolous matter than showbiz.

• http://twitter.com/francessmith frances smith

  not necessarily, no one was asked if they supported the coalition, they were asked about individual parties, and how they would vote if there were an election.

  support for the coalition can be better measured by government approval, which is going down.

  this form of questioning is limited research, the tycoon tax question was badly put, and so its only as useful as the quality of questions asked.

• http://www.yahoo.co.uk/ Firozali A.Mulla

  The global economy has stepped back from the brink of
  danger and signs of stabilisation are emerging from the euro zone and the
  United States, but high debt levels in developed markets and rising oil prices
  are key risks ahead, the IMF said on Sunday. “The global economy
  may be on a path to recovery, but there is not a great deal of room for
  maneuver and no room for policy mistakes,” International Monetary
  Fund (IMF) Managing Director, Christine Laggard, said in a speech in
  Beijing. So that is it. I had read the UK had three stars, not knowing the
  difference in the hotel stars and these economies but I could guess, UK has a
  huge hole, and now I get the confirmation via TV. Now if country that had a
  very strong pounds going, going what will the rest of the world that is hardly
  managing a daily mean do? I hope, they do not fall back, lamenting, WE NEED MOR
  HELP. Enough was/is given, but they are never satisfied,  binging? I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA 

• greggf

  David Cameron will be content with all this. 
  The “don’t know” opinions suit his ambition to remain as PM managing the Coalition,  while the 41% saying he does ”a good job of representing Britain abroad” is encouraging for his overseas travel part of the job.

• AnotherDaveB

  The gov’t does not have any plans/policy to reduce government debt. They have some rhetoric about reducing the rate of increase (budget deficit) but that’s all.

  The debt/deficit problem is caused by government overspending. There is no evidence that this government is willing to reduce government spending.

• ROUCynic

  All very encouraging but it’s still only 2012 – how much damage will they have done before 2015?

• Sal20111

  One of the gazillion of parasitic academics out there, or a journalist with a rudimentary knowledge of statistics and empirical data analysis, should carry out a brief exercise to show that these polls have a huge volatility (ie massive standard deviation) and don’t mean much till you’re in the final stretch of an election.

  If economic policy is the decider, then the game is for the Tories to lose.  Blair and Brown were as bad as it gets.  The most important things for a sovereign in the contemporary world are (a) credit risk: minimise country risk of default, ie fiscal responsibility, which Blair and Brown napalm bombed, (b) export revenues: make yourself popular to emerging markets through a friendly foreign policy, nuked by B & B by becoming a sidekick in disgusting wars, (c) diversified economic base: don’t pander to the City or a few dinosaur corporations but the silent majority of your economy.  Another Labour term and we’re well on the way to becoming the Weimar Republic.

• Kugelschreiber

  When I read ”
  David Cameron is a conviction politician”, for an instant, I thought it said “David Cameron is a convicted politician”