Blogs

Osborne’s Triumph: a 10-pt Labour lead

John Rentoul

osborne460 300x187 Osbornes Triumph: a 10 pt Labour leadTold you so. ComRes has a poll in The Independent tomorrow putting Labour 10 points ahead on 43 per cent to the Conservatives on 33 per cent. Labour is up three since last month’s Independent telephone poll (The Independent on Sunday series is a parallel online survey), and the Tories are down four. The Liberal Democrats are also down two (Others are up three).

Two-thirds of people (66 per cent) agree that “the measures announced in the Budget show that the Conservatives are the party of the rich”, while 27 per cent disagree and 7 per cent don’t know.

What I didn’t tell you, because I got it wrong, is that the “Camdinewithme” scandal seems to have had more of an effect than the Budget, although it is possible that the Budget sensitised the class-war instincts of the voters so that the Peter Cruddas sting sent them into an allergic shock.

In the 337 interviews in which the respondent expressed a voting preference before the cash-for-access story broke on Saturday night, Labour enjoyed a lead of only four points. But in the 350 interviews that took place on Sunday and Monday (today), Labour was 17 points ahead.

Ouch.

ComRes interviewed 1,010 GB adults by telephone between 23 and 26 March 2012. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.

There is also a Populus poll for The Times tomorrow, which shows a Labour lead of 4 points, up from 2 points last month. “Just under a third of respondents [were] contacted after the Tory funding row broke,” says Sam Coates (pay wall).

It also contains disappointing news for the Lib Dems. Only 23 per cent recognised the raising of the income tax personal allowance as a Lib Dem idea, while 16 per cent credited the Conservatives with it and 19 per cent the coalition as a whole.

And tonight’s YouGov poll, carried out on Sunday and Monday, shows no change from the 7-point lead it had before.

Photograph: Getty

Tagged in: , , , , ,
  • Kugelschreiber

    Oh, I see! Yes, very clever.

  • lecce

    Danke schoen, Herr Biro.


Property search
Browse by area

Latest from Independent journalists on Twitter