Where all the Lib Dems have gone

At the weekend we splashed on how 26 per cent of Tory voters would “seriously consider” voting for UKIP, after 10 per cent have already made the switch.

I went back to ComRes to find out where the other parties vote has gone. This is what the results show – and they make grim reading for Nick Clegg.

Where Lib Dems have gone

Since May 2010, a solid 36 per cent of Lib Dem voters have switched to Labour, less than 10 per cent have gone to the Tories, and the rest have floated to SNP, UKIP and Greens. The only crumb of comfort is that at 48 per cent, the May 2012 figure is the highest proportion of 2010 Lib Dem voters willing to vote Lib Dem again.

Where Tories have gone

Apart from the drift to UKIP, the thing that stands out from this graph is the big jump in people switching straight from Tory to Labour. In December it was just 4 per cent, now it’s more than doubled to 9 per cent. The Lib Dems have not benefited from the Tories’ woes. David Cameron will be worried that far from building on 2010 to get a Tory majority in 2015, just 77 per cent of Tory voters now say they will vote Conservative again.

Labour vote is solid

The least surprising of the three graphs, because the Labour vote is up overall. 93 per cent of people who voted for Gordon Brown in 2010 would back Ed Miliband now, with only marginal switching to Tories and Lib Dems.

Given the volatility of the polls overall, I possibly expected more churn than the graphs suggest, but the real test for Lib Dems is two years into the coalition can they tempt Labour voters back.

For now it feels as if we could be heading for another hung parliament in 2015, with the Lib Dems – whether lead by Clegg or not – forced to make a real decision between governing with the Conservatives or Labour.

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• FergalFury

  Nothing inherently wrong with Liberal policy, they are the only party safeguarding civil liberty, but undoubtedly Clegg is a disaster and must go. No new leader awaits alas.

• http://twitter.com/Logical_Song Chris Phillips

  Things which wouldn’t have happened without the Libdems in government:
  1. Move towards £10,000 before you pay income tax.
  2. Pupil premium for disadvantaged kids.
  Things which would have happened without the Libdems in government (just Tories)
  1. Trident would have gone ahead.
  2. 50% tax band eliminated, rather than changed to 45%.
  3. No fault dismissals.

• leftstage

  Things which wouldn’t have happened without the LibDems in government.
   
  750,000 civil servants sacked (and that means police, nurses, tax inspectors, firemen etc).  Disabled being labelled as “scroungers” for resisting being bullied into nonexistant jobs.  Blind folk and amputees being harrassed by being classified as “fit for work” by corrupt private companies.  People getting rent subsidies being disposessed and forced out of cities to areas with no work available. A disastrous handover of the NHS to foreign privateers. A double dip recession by supporting stupidly negative austerity policies.  The list must be endless!

• Guest

  This post must have taken considerable time and effort to put together, Mr Chorley. You would be far better advised to switch to something less arduous, such as a series on Questions To Which The Answer Is Perhaps. Or a crusade to root out redundant superlatives in newspapers, a campaign which would have my wholehearted support.

  In any case, you must know how fickle and volatile is public opinion, and how quickly the picture can be transformed. That drift to UKIP was not reflected in seats gained during the recent local council elections. The party started with nine seats and finished with nine. The Greens, nowhere on your graphs, picked up 11 seats and finished with 40. The LibDems lost seats hand-over-fist but still polled around 16pc. Historically, LibDem support tends to ebb away after one general election and surge back for the next, even when the party is not sharing in government.

  Governing parties under Thatcher, Major and Blair have seen their support collapse in public opinion polls and huge losses of seats in local elections and still recovered to win general elections. Only one poll matters*.

  *A phrase possibly on Mr Rentoul’s Banned List

• SheilaOliver

  http://www.sheilaoliver.org/

  Have a look what the LibDems got up to in Stockport – with the participation and/or total connivance of LibDem MPs Hunter and Stunell.  Particularly abhorrent are the toxic waste dump school, the town hall protester and Offerton Precinct. The LibDems believe in open and honest government and human rights???? Not where and when they power they don’t!

• http://www.facebook.com/people/Matt-Tysoe/711623798 Matt Tysoe

   4. EU referendum

  5. Proper immigration controls

• http://www.facebook.com/people/Matt-Tysoe/711623798 Matt Tysoe

   So is Vince Cable who thinks net migration of 252,000 a year is perfectly fine and sustainable.

• Kugelschreiber

  The LibDems sold out on our NHS, when they voted in favour of the Health Bill.  Many people will NEVER forgive them for this.

  And how can we ever trust them again , when we find that they had a £100 000 donation from non-dom businessmen with interests in Alpha HEALTHCARE?

  To see for yourself, just Google:

  “LibDems receive £100 000 donation from non-dom business men”

• http://www.the-middle-man.co.uk/ Mark Richards

  I do wonder at times whether the Lib Dems’ core voter base has the same priorities as the party itself.  It being the third party many Lib Dem voters are after all protest voters.  Right now the Lib Dems are in government and therefore to be protested against.