Where all the Lib Dems have gone
At the weekend we splashed on how 26 per cent of Tory voters would “seriously consider” voting for UKIP, after 10 per cent have already made the switch.
I went back to ComRes to find out where the other parties vote has gone. This is what the results show – and they make grim reading for Nick Clegg.
Since May 2010, a solid 36 per cent of Lib Dem voters have switched to Labour, less than 10 per cent have gone to the Tories, and the rest have floated to SNP, UKIP and Greens. The only crumb of comfort is that at 48 per cent, the May 2012 figure is the highest proportion of 2010 Lib Dem voters willing to vote Lib Dem again.
Apart from the drift to UKIP, the thing that stands out from this graph is the big jump in people switching straight from Tory to Labour. In December it was just 4 per cent, now it’s more than doubled to 9 per cent. The Lib Dems have not benefited from the Tories’ woes. David Cameron will be worried that far from building on 2010 to get a Tory majority in 2015, just 77 per cent of Tory voters now say they will vote Conservative again.
The least surprising of the three graphs, because the Labour vote is up overall. 93 per cent of people who voted for Gordon Brown in 2010 would back Ed Miliband now, with only marginal switching to Tories and Lib Dems.
Given the volatility of the polls overall, I possibly expected more churn than the graphs suggest, but the real test for Lib Dems is two years into the coalition can they tempt Labour voters back.
For now it feels as if we could be heading for another hung parliament in 2015, with the Lib Dems – whether lead by Clegg or not – forced to make a real decision between governing with the Conservatives or Labour.Tagged in: labour, lib dems, Polls, tories
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