England have a 5.3% chance of winning Euro 2012

5.3 per cent. We all knew expectations for England were low going into Euro 2012, but as low as this?

In any case, this is the figure put on the chances of Roy Hodgson’s side lifting the trophy in Kiev in a month’s time according to the Euro Club Index, an analysis tool devised for predicting matches.

It means England are the fifth favourites (as they are with most bookies) just behind Italy, who are on 5.8 per cent. In third are Germany on 15.4 per cent, then the Netherlands on 16.3 per cent.

Spain are the overwhelming favourites – given a whopping 27.6 per cent chance of retaining the trophy they won in 2008.

Analysis by the Euro Club Index means there is around a 60 per cent chance that one of the three outstanding candidates to win the competition, Spain, Germany and the Netherlands, will win the tournament.

Despite the findings, it would be unwise to rule anything out, with Denmark and more recently Greece upsetting the odds to take the title. Simon Gleave, Head of Analysis at Infostrada Sports which developed the Euro Club Index in partnership with Hypercube said: “Historically the European Championship has been an open tournament. With the Dutch and the Germans drawn in the same group, failure for one of them to progress could open the way for a surprise. The Euro Club Index gives a clear picture of who these dark horses could be.”

The Euro Club Index, which is based on competitive matches only, has England’s group opponents Ukraine as seventh favourites with a 4 per cent chance and Sweden in eighth with a 3.3 per cent hope. France, considered the most difficult team in Group D, are down in 13th place, with a mere 2.2 per cent chance of glory.

Republic of Ireland fans, filled with expectation ahead of the tournament’s kick-off later today, might feel disheartened at the Euro Club Index’s positioning of their side as the team with the least chance of success at Euro 2012. Giovanni Trapattoni’s side are given just a 1.2 per cent chance of winning the tournament.

Euro Club Index – chance of success at Euro 2012…

Spain 27.6%
Netherlands 16.3%
Germany 15.4%
Italy 5.8%
England 5.3%
Croatia 4.2%
Ukraine 4.0%
Sweden 3.3%
Portugal 3.0%
Greece 2.9%
Russia 2.8%
Czech Rep 2.4%
France 2.2%
Denmark 2.2%
Poland 1.4%
Ireland 1.2%

Further information, including prediction of all of the matches at Euro 2012, can be found at the Euro Club Index website (www.euroclubindex.com).

Recent Posts on Football

• New day (slowly) rising - As Brasileirão gets underway, Brazilian football stumbles, rather than leaps into the future
• A changing of the guards in English football: From Sir Alex Ferguson to Jose Mourinho
• Nike kit deal puts England at No 2 in the world (but which country is top?)
• PSG and the French league must be more proactive in dealing with hooliganism
• The ghost at the feast: Luiz Felipe Scolari hopes that dropping Ronaldinho for the Confederations Cup won't come back to haunt Brazil