iBet: Expect England to struggle

Euro 2012, Group D

Lay England to qualify at 1.69 with Betfair

So what do we make of England? Truthfully, the build up has been chaotic and I expect them to struggle. The new manager clearly knows the squad’s limitations and is setting them up to not concede, but the top quality teams usually find a way through and England’s attacking options look pretty one dimensional. Although they are nine places below Roy Hodgson’s men in the FIFA rankings, France look the best team in this group by some way to me, and they could be a dark horse to go deep into the tournament. They are unbeaten in 20 matches, are tight at the back with only four goals conceded in ten qualification games, have a settled and in-form midfield, and unlike England have world class quality where it matters in Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema, who almost un-noticed notched 32 domestic goals this season, and Bayern’s Frank Ribery. Then you have two more expansive teams in Sweden, who are definitely under-rated and score plenty, and Ukraine, who have home advantage but are ranked only 50^th and seem vulnerable at the back. It’s a wide open group – anything could happen – and in my opinion England should not be odds on to qualify.

Advices

First round of group games at European Championships since 1980 have averaged under two goals, with only 27% producing more than 2.5 goals. I will be laying over 3.5 goals with Betfair in a number of them. Let the fun begin…

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• kieranderbys

  Taking into account commission you’d actually be slightly better off betting on England not to qualify at 11-8 with Skybet and Stan James. I agree though that the odds seem to underplay the chances of an early English exit, but still feel that the most likely outcome is that England go through after beating Ukraine and gettinga point from the games against France and Sweden.

  I don’t rate Ukraine, and think that home advantage can be overemphasised. It didn’t do Switzerland and Austria much good last time; they managed only four points in the group stage between them, and three of those came via a Swiss victory against an under strength Portuguese side whose progression was already assured.

• GarethPurnell

  All very true and good, well made points. I don’t really rate Poland or Ukraine. I don’t know why Poland are only 3.35 to beat Russia, who are 49 places above them in the rankings. I also think the price in Tuesday’s other game is a ricket. Why are the Czech’s, who only just beat Scotland to qualification and looked all at see against Russia, clear 11/8 favourites to beat Greece, who were undefeated in qualification and finished above Croatia in their group… plus they got stronger and stronger against Poland in their first game and were unlucky not to win it (missed a pen). On value grounds I make both Poland and the Czechs a lay on Tuesday….

• kieranderbys

  I agree with your doubts about Poland, but precisely because Poland are not a good side I don’t feel able to lay the Czechs on the basis of Greece’s performance against the Poles. The Czechs were well beaten by Russia, but I still think they showed enough going forward to trouble Greece. The Greeks were very fortunate that the Poles imploded in the second half.