iBet: Games will become tighter at Euro 2012

Euro 2012

Lay zero penalty shoot-out matches at 3.3 to one with Betfair

With the Euro 2012 group phases now over it’s time to sit back and assess what we’ve seen and look for value in the knockout rounds. While we have seen a lot of goals so far (54 at the time of writing with last night’s Group D fixtures to come) if history is any guide, games will become tighter now. In European Championship games between 1980 and 2008, 47 per cent of second round group fixtures and 58 per cent of third round group fixtures produced over 2.5 goals. However, only 37 per cent of quarter and semi final games went over that line, and only 12 per cent of final games did. It makes sense – teams are starting level pegging and can be patient, only going gung-ho if and when they have to. And as teams of similar ability meet as we move into the latter stages, the draw, extra time and penalties become more of a runner. The average goals per game at the time if writing is 2.7, giving a projected total 83.7 goals. History suggests the rate will fall as soon as the knockout phase begins.

Advices

Royal Ascot can be something of a punting graveyard with big fields of fancieds horses – indeed there were 116 declared on day one. However, two to consider each way at decent prices on Wednesday are Nahrain (4/1) in the 3.05 and Captain Bertie (12-1) in the 4.25. Nahrain has been trained for the top Group 1 races for mares; while improvement looks certain for Captain Bertie after two runs in top handicap company.

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