England’s chances of winning Euro 2012 now at 9.7%

England captain Steven Gerrard

Before Euro 2012 kicked-off, I wrote about England’s chances of winning the tournament.

I reported that according to the Euro Club Index, an analysis tool devised for predicting matches, England stood a dismal 5.3 per cent chance of success.

But with England navigating their way past tricky opposition and to the top of Group D, their chances have increased significantly.

England are now the the third favourites to lift the trophy in Kiev on 1 July with a 9.7 per cent hope. Before the tournament Roy Hodgson’s side were the fifth favourites, but have now moved above Italy while the Netherlands have been eliminated.

Reigning champions Spain remain the best bet for success, with a 33.8 per cent chance and Germany are in second, rated at 28.1 per cent. Greece, unsurprisingly, are given the lowest chance – just 3.2 per cent.

Perhaps the most interesting conclusion from the analysis, which is based on competitive matches only, is that a Spain v England final is given the second highest chance with a 12.2 per cent shot. Spain v Germany is the most likely at 29.6 per cent.

Looking ahead to Sunday’s quarter-final, England are ranked as slight favourites with a 51.2 per cent chance of finding a way past Italy.

To reach Final:

1 Spain-Germany 29.6%

2 Spain-England 12.2%

3 Spain-Italy 10.8%

4 Portugal-Germany 8.9%

5 Czech Republic-Germany 6.4%

6 France-Germany 5.5%

7 Spain-Greece 5.1%

8 England-Portugal 4.0%

9 Italy-Portugal 3.7%

10 England-Czech Republic 3.0%

11 Italy-Czech Republic 2.5%

12 England-France 2.3%

13 Italy-France 1.9%

14 Portugal-Greece 1.7%

15 Czech Republic-Greece 1.4%

16 France-Greece 1.0%

Phases (Win – Final – SF):

1 Spain 33.8% 57.7% 78.8%

2 Germany 28.1% 50.4% 75.5%

3 England 9.7% 21.4% 51.2%

4 Italy 8.8% 18.9% 48.8%

5 Portugal 7.8% 18.3% 55.2%

6 Czech Republic 5.2% 13.2% 44.8%

7 France 3.5% 10.7% 21.2%

8 Greece 3.2% 9.2% 24.5%

Follow Simon Rice on Twitter @simonrice

For more on club rankings and predictions, go here www.twitter.com/euroclubindex or here www.euroclubindex.com.

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• barkingcrisp

  how exciting football gets when you introduce math to it!

• samjaidee

  Has the definition of excitement been dumbed down as well?