If Cameron recommends it, people will vote to stay in EU

We psephological prudists do not normally approve of hypothetical questions in opinion polls, and I thought that questions about referendums had exhausted their limited value some time ago.

But the YouGov poll in today’s Sun manages to ask a hypothetical question about a referendum on this country’s EU membership that is interesting and that tells us something new.

Imagine the British government under David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with Europe and said that Britain’s interests were now protected, and David Cameron recommended that Britain remain a member of the European Union on the new terms. How would you then vote in a referendum on the issue?

42% said they “would vote for Britain to remain in the European Union on the new terms”;

34% said they “would vote for Britain to leave the European Union”.

19% said they don’t know and 5% said they would not vote. That would translate into a 55-45% vote to stay in the EU.

It was also interesting that there seems to be considerable support for Cameron’s “wait and see” policy of “strategic patience”:

Thinking about the current situation in Europe, which of the following best reflects your view?

If we are to have a renegotiation or referendum on Europe it be decided as soon as possible, the economic crisis in the Eurozone means we need to resolve our relationship with Europe as soon as we can: 36%

With the rest of Europe in a debt crisis it would be better to wait and see what happens and what the rest of the European Union looks like after the crisis has passed before deciding what is best for Britain: 39%

8% responded “Neither”: presumably they want to get out regardless, or want to stay in regardless.

And if you believe in that stuff about the wisdom of crowds, YouGov also asked:

Regardless of whether or not you would like Britain to remain a member of the European Union, do you think Britain will still be a member of the European Union in 10 years time?

63% said yes and 22% said no.

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• FergalFury

  He is not a Psephologist, he is a very naughty boy.

• Toocleverbyhalf

  You’re quite right to disapprove of hypothetical questions in opinion polls (or elsewhere as it goes) especially ones about referendums that may never be called and for which campaigning has yet to start. But don’t look a gift horse in the mouth, Europe provides something for pundits to opine about endlessly and those column inches have to be filled.

  The early polls in the AV referendum turned out to be useless because only the Yes side was then campaigning. Any polls re the EU are similarly of zero interest now whilst the only side campaigning is the Eurosceptic one.

  Were there a real possibility of a referendum the pro camp would suddenly find funders galore to back it just as was the case in those glorious, long forgotten days of Britain in Europe and the European Movement (to name but two campaigning organisations) when one about the euro seemed a real possibility.

• greggf

  “How much influence, if any, do you think Britain currently has in the EU?”

  Perhaps the result to this question is the most revealing of all.
  A total of 57% thought the UK had little or no influence in the EU at all.
  And this can only become more obvious as the Fiscal Union takes shape without the UK.

• Junius

  Quite so, Toocleverbyhalf

  I have not scrutinised this You Gov opinion poll in detail, but in the fine tradition of commenting that will not prevent me from once more chipping in my tuppence-worth.

  It appears from today’s online news items that 66pc of people polled ‘want’ a referendum on in/out of the EU. That figure is about the same as those who ‘want’ reform of the House of Lords, according to a recent ComRes poll for the Indie.

  But here’s a funny thing: when for the latest Economist Ipsos Mori Issues Index, people were asked, unprompted, what were the most important issues facing Britain today, just eight per cent mentioned Europe/EU/Common Market/euro; the number who mentioned reform of the House of Lords were too few to record.

  For journalists to interpret and report an instant response to a pollster’s questions on a particular issue taken in isolation as a ‘want’ seems to me a complete distortion of the reality.

• Kugelschreiber

  According to many of the papers, us left-wingers are supposed to be in FAVOUR of the EU! But I’m not

  (although I’m sincerely open to persuasion, if anyone has any convincing arguments)
  (please let me know the ADVANTAGES to Britain of the EU?)

  Because of the EU, our nationhood & sense of UNITY is being destroyed before our very eyes, as EUROPEAN VAGRANTS wander in and out of our country at will.

  The latest news from the EU is that they are INSISTING that EUROPEANS be allowed IMMEDIATE ACCESS to our BENEFITS SYSTEM.

  How will this NOT bankrupt us, pray?

  To find the report on the above, just Google:

  “eu demands that britain admits immigrants intending to go straight onto benefits”

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