“As with cake, so with rail fares”

Pedants, eh? What a nuisance. One or two of them have pointed out the flawed assumptions of a question asked by YouGov, which I cited in my article for The Independent today.

The question was (page 7):

If you had to choose, which one of the following would you prefer – an increase in rail fares of 6.2%, or an increase in the basic rate of tax from 20p to 21p?

On which respondents divided 39% for higher fares, 32% for higher income tax and 29% didn’t know.

Unfortunately, as my correspondents pointed out, the revenue from a rail fare increase of 6.2% is about £315m (that of a 2-point rise is £105m according the Autumn Statement 2011, page 46, costing the subsidy required to cut from RPI+3 to RPI+1), while that raised by a 1p increase in the basic rate of income tax is £3.9bn (according to HMRC estimates).

So YouGov’s question asked if people preferred a rise in fares or a rise in income tax more than 10 times greater than that needed.

Oh well, I doubt if most people who answered the question were aware of the maths behind it. I think most would have answered it as if it had asked whether they preferred a fare rise or an equivalent rise in income tax. It the principle of “who pays for it?” that I think is interesting.

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• creggancowboy

  Shouldn’t that be “math” Jahn? (American accent).

• Guest

  I think it is interesting that you ignore the obvious; that had yougov phrased their question as “would you prefer – an increase in rail fares of 6.2%, or an increase in the basic rate of tax from 20p to 20.09p?” they would have naturally obtained a different result. I think it is interesting because it speaks to the ideological slant of your comment.

• http://www.facebook.com/people/Blaise-Bailey-Finnegan-III/659235937 Blaise Bailey Finnegan III

  I think it is interesting that you ignore the obvious; that had yougov phrased their question as “would you prefer – an increase in rail fares of 6.2%, or an increase in the basic rate of tax from 20p to 20.09p?” they would have naturally obtained a different result. I think it is interesting because it speaks to the ideological slant of your writing.

• Pacificweather

  Well no actually, what we would choose is that the rail companies would not be allowed to take profits whilst receiving a public subsidy. It seems there are lies, damned lies and You Gov polls.

• Pacificweather

  Let us assume that the 29% who did not know actually new that the question was flawed ( it’s as good an assumption as any other from the facts presented) and add them to those who would like to see a small tax rise because they new we do not have hypothecated taxes and you have a completely different picture of the polled world view.