How Romney might win

If you are interested in American politics, then this account of Karl Rove, Republican strategist, addressing a breakfast meeting of some very rich people on the last day of the convention really is worth reading. Rove does not say anything surprising, unless you find it surprising that George W Bush’s successful adviser thinks that elections are won on the centre ground, but it is important.

“The people we’ve got to win in this election, by and large, voted for Barack Obama … If you say he’s a socialist, they’ll go to defend him. If you call him a ‘far out left-winger,’ they’ll say, ‘no, no, he’s not.’” The proper strategy, Rove declared, was criticizing Obama without really criticizing him—by reminding voters of what the president said that he was going to do and comparing it to what he’s actually done. “If you keep it focused on the facts and adopt a respectful tone, then they’re gonna agree with you.”

In Rove’s estimation, things are going well. “Barack Obama unleashed hell on our candidate on May 15,” he said. “Between May 15 and July 31st, he spent $111 million on ads out of his campaign war chest, and there was about another $17, $18 million spent by outside groups. The day that this started, the Gallup poll was 45-45. On the 31st of July, it was 46-46.”

“We spent—outside groups spent $110 million and Romney spent $42 million,” Rove continued. “So the bad guys [Democrats] spent $130 million and the good guys [Republicans] spent $152 million, and our money didn’t go as far as theirs because we couldn’t buy at the lowest unit rate. Really, it was sort of roughly equivalent, and we fought it to a draw.”

This is advice that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are clearly following. I thought their speeches to the convention were poor, a reminder that surprisingly few American politicians of front rank are any good at the basics of public speaking, but their “more in sorrow than in anger” line on the President was striking. They were appealing beyond the delegates at the convention to the people who voted for Obama in 2008 but who are disappointed with him.

Recent Posts on Eagle Eye

• The Fiction of Gatsby
• Why "build more houses" is not The Answer
• Cameron on Gay Marriage Should Make Us Proud
• What Focus Groups Say About Ed Miliband
• Cameron's possibly winning position

• denbo68

  Obama will win it. Romney is heading toward a defeat. Ryan was not his most ‘optimal’ choice. He should have gone with a battleground stater (Rubio). Obama did it with Biden and while Biden is perhaps the stupidest VP we ever had (yes, worse than Quayle) it ended up being a good call.

  Independents will look at Ryan suspiciously. You have a whole cast of Democrat economists (Roubini, Krugman) who love to bad mouth Ryan and will say just about anything to defeat him. Never mind these two brainiacs are rather inept at coming up with real solutions themselves.

  While the economy is bad people still feel uneasy voting against Obama. Voting for him gets rid of their ‘white guilt’. Democrats are good at pointing out how racist Americans all are for criticizing Obama.

• tomdonnelly

  Obama will get his second term. Just not for the reasons you give. You were saying two months ago he would win because ‘the fix was in’. Wut?

  The Americans do not vote to assuage anything resembling ‘white guilt’. Are you kidding? The Americans who don’t vote for Obama- although normally Democrat or Independent, in some cases- don’t vote for him because he’s black. America is riven with racism. I’ve been to different parts of America four times this year already. It’s riddled with racism. And your playing of the race card here confirms precisely that.

  As for the discredited and pathetic Karl Rove. He should stick to trying to get Assange extradited ( let’s hope he fails at that too), and why someone like Rentoul takes him or the Campbells of this world seriously is just something between Rentoul and Blair.

• slyfas

  ““If you keep it focused on the facts and adopt a respectful tone, then they’re gonna agree with you.”

  The problem is: truth is an anathema to the Republicans!

• porkfright

  Great. We’re damned no matter which bunch of neocons win.