Why the rebellious Tory trend of 2012 must end, if they want to win the election

(GETTY IMAGES)

After a seven-week break, MPs arrived back in Westminster this morning – a whole fortnight before the next recess. With the imminently-expected cabinet reshuffle, all eyes will be on the political big shots over the next week. But this isn’t the only thing on the Conservative Party agenda.

In a post on ConservativeHome last week, influential Tory Tim Montgomerie wrote that “rebelliousness of the parliamentary party is at epidemic levels”. Apparently challenging the party line is the height of fashion among backbenchers at the moment. Whether it’s standing up for true political beliefs or merely screwing over the coalition, this trend is certainly ‘in’ among a significant number of grassroot Conservative MPs.

The most recent example came just a few days ago from Tim Yeo of South Suffolk. A man of principles, Yeo passionately put forward his argument for expansion to Heathrow airport in the Telegraph. This, alone, goes against the party line and coalition agreement, but it was the way with which he voiced his opinion which ruffled the most feathers. Speculation over whether the Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is “man or mouse” is not the most outrageous of slurs, but it is still a dent to Cameron’s image at a pretty crucial time.

A dig at his personal credibility may be one thing, but only the serious trendsetters have been brave enough to challenge the PM’s political status. At the forefront of the Tories’ parliamentary class of 2010 was the Hereford and South Herefordshire MP, Jesse Norman. As a respected financial mind and Big Society supporter, Norman was tipped for ministerial promotion – until June of this year. Leading a charge of 90 fellow backbenchers against reform to the House of Lords, he successfully snapped a key thread within the coalition tie.

Yet, arguably the most effective defiance of the year took place outside of the chamber, when a single sentence from Conservative MP for Mid Bedfordshire Nadine Dorries sent Downing Street into meltdown. “Not only are Cameron and Osborne two posh boys that don’t know the price of milk, but two arrogant posh boys who show no remorse, no contrition, and no passion to want to understand the lives of others”, she declared. She may have been justifiably frustrated, but at that point in time – days before local elections when the government was already facing criticisms for being ‘out of touch’ – such a blunt statement was undeniably destructive.

How could any of this possibly help a party already blighted by the dreaded mid-term blues in the polls?

Parliament’s independent minds should be supported and encouraged, but outright rebellions come at a high price. The subsequent overwhelming speculation each and every time entirely undermines the standing of the prime minister and his cabinet, however freshly-seated the incumbents may be.

When the Brown ministry stood outside Downing Street on that brisk April morning of 2010, it was evident their days were numbered. There was no unity or mutual motive between the corners of New Labour in its final years. No matter how infrequently the average voter follows politics, almost everyone that turns up on polling day is able to ask themselves that vital question – do you have confidence in this government? The resounding answer in 2010 was lethal for Gordon Brown.

Defiance, with whatever reasoning, has vast consequences on personal and electoral levels. If the rebellious road to 2015 gets any bumpier, it may well bring the Conservative Party to its knees. The argument that the Tories should not be held to ransom by the Liberal Democrats is very legitimate – after all, they have a significantly larger mandate to govern. However, that mandate was not large enough to comfortably govern independently, and it is crucial that this is remembered for the duration of the coalition partnership.

This week marks a new chapter in this tale of political convenience. Openly challenging and resisting a Tory-led government will only spell bad news for the party. The decision to disobey the rule from above might be right on a personal level, but it should be taken lightly or often. Whether the coalition lasts the duration or not, it is accepted on both sides that the partnership needs to improve its potential legacy.

Defiance only prevents this each and every time, threatening the political safety of a statistically comfortable administration. It might be at the height if Conservative fashion – so were shoulder pads, once.

As conference season approaches and the reshuffled cabinet settles, some Conservative MPs are reportedly plotting their next bold move against the party whip. It might be a good idea for David Cameron to have a word with a few backbenchers as they return to grace the parliamentary catwalk. “Rebellion? That was so last season!”

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• NT86

  Hopefully there’s more rebellions so that this godforsaken government collapses. Watch as UKIP leeches Tory votes in 2015.

• grumpy_old_ben

  as usual with Cameron, ignore his words and watch his actions. The Conservatives were unelectable in 2010 and they will be unelectable in 2015, and Cameron is well aware of it.

  It doesn’t matter which specific gaggle of posh boys, Muslim-lites like Warsi, sycophants, party acolytes and sons of sponsors are appointed, look elsewhere; look, for example, at the developing fiasco at LMU which, regardless of its merits, is being grossly mishandled, was a standing invitation to legal challenge and should never have taken place in its present form.

  The increasingly obvious corruption and subservience to the EU of the Cameron clique, the ideological obsessions which have completely consumed the LibDems and the ongoing destruction of the national infrastructure; which of these will be addressed over the next couple of days?

  Answers in both sides of a Mobius band, please.

• Adrian Fox

  As Cameron never sought the support of his party for the coalition, as the Lib Dems DID do by getting the policy endorsed by a conference, it is perhaps not surprising that the right of his party is now in rebellious mood.
  The more difficult things become the more they will rattle their cages and call for the pure elixir of deregulation, tax cuts and all the other ‘goodies’ that they mistakenly believe will do something to halt the decline in the economy.
  Of course, we all know these policies don’t work, and that by throwing their toys out of the pram all these walking anachronisms will do is to precipitate an early election by forcing the Lib Dems to quit the coalition.
  They should all be forced to take a long, cold look at the polls. Not only are the Tories lagging some 10% behind in national polls, but they won’t have their eagerly awaited boundary changes, nor will there be that conventional split in the anti Tory vote which has existed since the early 70s. With the eclipsing of the Lib Dem vote, particularly in the marginal constituencies, Labour is likely to make massive gains at Tory expense.
  That is exactly the fate that the Tory right and the Cameron critics are forcing the party towards.

• g0annahead

  There is a growing belief that no matter who you vote for in the 2 party system; be it labour or tory, republican or democrat, the resulting agenda is the same.
  We only need to look at the current government who penalises the disabled whilst permitting corporate corruption to continue to understand they are working against the people and for the elitist bankroll.

• disquschester

  I “heart” Mad Nad. (I still can’t do a heart on a Macbook)

• http://www.myspace.com/alazarinmobius Alazarin

  The Tories have shown their colours as the Neo-Liberal Social Darwinists they really are. The LibDems are little better than Quisling collaborators and NuLabour are cut from the same Neo-Liberal Social Darwinist cloth at the Tories. Where can the electorate turn? UKIP and BNP are just nastier racist prolefeed versions of the Tories. Respect is a joke. SWP seem to be stuck in a past full of heroic Stakhanovite slogans and demonstrations. There is a vacuum on the political landscape for a party that has a heart, gives a damn and has a plan.

• snorker

  Does it make much difference in practice if blue Labour or pink Tories are in power ?

  hence If as a Tory you cant stand Cameron vote UKIP to let Labour in. If as a labour supporter you cant stand Milliband vote Green. The days of holding your nose and voting out of party loyalty are over. The most healthy sign is the rise of small parties. A new Green Leader and possibility of UKIP ceasing to be a domestic irrelevant joke that stands in elections ” because thats what it does” and becoming credible will make things interesting.

  If Milliband is smart he will wait the the right election timetable moment then suddenly guarantee ” really promise or hope to die” a referendum on pull out of the EU. That will scupper the Tory vote.

• kupfernigk

  I thought they were past rattling the cages and had moved on to throwing excrement. That’s what male chimpanzees do when they aren’t getting their way.

• kupfernigk

  Indeed, the grass roots supporters all seem to be over 65 with substantial private pensions and BUPA. And their numbers are rapidly shrinking.

• mypipsranout

  We need to create a new party. I have a lot of time for SWP in the sense that they organise and fund demonstrations, but what we need is to marry that with an actual ideology that is relevant to the modern world. Don’t get me wrong I’m not saying socialism is ‘old hat’ but rather that the industrial socialism is. After recently re-reading some Diggers statements, I think we need to incorporate that kind of socialism into industrial socialism. In fact an early Greenpeace leaflet always sticks in my mind of occupying cities and countryside, with occupiers in the countryside supplying food to those in essential jobs in urban areas via supermarkets reclaimed as re-distribution centres. I mean there is no point fighting for jobs and growth if the earth itself cannot sustain them. We do need a totally different kind of economy and the optimist in me thinks that most of us already think/know this, the pessimist in me knows/thinks we are all to wrung out, knackered and struggling robbing Peter to pay Paul to find the spare energy. However it seems we are being kettled into having to act or lay down and die by the extreme right. It’s up to us to put our heads together and come up with a plan to fight back to save ourselves and the amazingly diversity of life this planet our home.