Voters want a Labour government with a Tory PM
A sensational Populus poll for today’s Times puts the Labour lead at 15 points, with the party on 45 per cent, the highest in a phone poll since 2001 (YouGov internet polls have often put Labour at 45 per cent in the past two years).
We should recall Twyman’s Law, which is that if a finding is unexpected, then it is probably an outlier. The average Labour lead across all British Polling Council polls is still nine points. Mind you, that is enough for an Ed Miliband majority of nearly 100 seats under the existing boundaries, which will be the ones on which the 2015 election will be fought.
Three of the other findings of the poll are important. One is that the Government is still more trusted on the economy, even when Nick Clegg’s name is included in the question:
With our economy facing challenges in the months ahead, who do you most trust to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain?
David Cameron, Nick Clegg and the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne 36%
Ed Miliband and the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls 32%
The second is that the largest group in the electorate is dissatisfied with David Cameron but prefers him as Prime Minister to Ed Miliband:
Which of the following statements do you most agree with?
(a) I am satisfied with the job David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister 23%
(b) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister – BUT I’d still prefer to have him as Prime Minister than have Ed Miliband as prime minister 37%
(c) I am dissatisfied with the job that David Cameron is doing overall as Prime Minister – AND I’d prefer to have Ed Miliband as prime minister instead 31%
And the third is that the voters, by a narrow margin, would prefer a slowing down of public spending cuts even if it means borrowing more for longer (closer to Ed Balls’s policy) to Osborne’s Plan A:
I am going to read out two different views about the economy. Please listen to both views and then tell me which one you most agree with?
1) Britain has a severe debt crisis that threatens international confidence in our economy. Every year that the country borrows money it costs taxpayers millions in interest payments. The longer we go on borrowing, the more tax we pay to fund it and the less public services we can afford. So, even though this means bigger spending cuts over the next four years we must get back to balance by 2017, two years after the next election 44%
OR 2) Britain’s debt problem is serious and must be dealt with, but it would damage the economy and public services if cuts were made too quickly. So, even if it means borrowing more for longer, we should slow the pace of cuts, rather than trying to deal with the problem completely by 2017 51%
As Mehdi Hasan says, the great British public want a Labour government with a Tory prime minister. No, can’t think of anyone.Tagged in: opinion polls
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