ComRes: Labour lead down to 4 points

Labour is only four points ahead of the Conservatives, the lowest lead in any opinion poll since April, in the latest ComRes poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror tomorrow.

Conservative      35% (+2)

Labour               39% (-3)

Lib Dem             10% (0)

UKIP                   8% (0)

Others                8% (+1)

(Change since last ComRes online poll for Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror in August.)

The Martin Baxter calculator produces a Labour majority of 42 seats on existing constituency boundaries. The Liberal Democrats would lose 40 seats, down to just 17. On new boundaries, now abandoned, the Labour majority would be cut to 14.

In other findings, support for British withdrawal from Afghanistan has hit a record high; three-quarters of the public support the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge taking legal action against the French magazine that published topless pictures of Kate; but one in five people say they have seen the pictures, and three in five agree that a privacy law is unenforceable because of the internet.

Asked about Nick Clegg’s qualities, 3% say they think he is “good in a crisis” and 8% describe him as “patriotic”.

Afghanistan

I would support a phased withdrawal of British forces from Afghanistan, the aim being the end of combat operations within a year or so

• Older people are more likely than younger people to support a phased withdrawal: 69% of those aged 18 to 34 agree, compared with 84% of those aged 65+.

All British forces should be withdrawn from Afghanistan as quickly as possible

• 60% of Conservative voters and 61% of Lib Dem voters agree compared with 68% of Labour voters.

The Duchess of Cambridge’s privacy

William and Kate, the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, are right to take legal action against the French photographer and magazine that published topless pictures of the Duchess recently

Agree – 75%

Disagree – 14%

Don’t know – 11%

• 78% of women agree compared with 72% of men.
• Older people aged 65 and over are the most likely age group to agree (81%). This compares with 68% of those aged 18 to 24.

I have seen the topless pictures of Kate, the Duchess of Cambridge, that were recently published in a French magazine

Agree – 19%

Disagree – 75%

Don’t know – 6%

• 25% of men say they have seen them, compared with 13% of women.
• 34% of those aged 18 to 24 have seen them – the highest of any age group.

The internet makes it impractical to enforce current privacy laws

Agree – 62%

Disagree – 17%

Don’t know – 21%

Economy

I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy

I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy

Liberal Democrats

Vince Cable would make a better leader of the Liberal Democrat Party than Nick Clegg

Agree – 27%

Disagree – 25%

Don’t know – 48%

• Nearly half say they don’t know.
• Importantly for the party’s outreach to Labour voters, 38% of them agree that Vince Cable would make a better leader of the Liberal Democrat Party than Nick Clegg.
• 24% of Liberal Democrat voters agree, while 36% disagree.
• 25% of Conservative voters agree, while 36% disagree.

Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Please select those that you think apply to Nick Clegg

Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2,042 GB adults online on 20 and 21 September 2012. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.

Photograph: Stefan Wermuth/Reuters

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  I wonder when political journalists will wake up to the new realities brought about by fixed-length parliaments. The two main parties seem to realise that campaigning vigorously now, less than halfway through the present one, would be a waste of resources. They are sensibly “keeping their powder dry” for a couple more years until they really need it.

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• Junius

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• Pacificweather

  Looks almost exactly like their vote percentage at the next general election. If we lived in a democracy we would know the outcome but as we don’t it is anybody’s guess.

  ComRes would have us believe that more people believe there will not believe this year that a civil war in Afghanistan is less likely after the western forces leave than last year. Clearly the poll was taken before the latest green on blue killings. My grandfather fought in Afghanistan and he would have given a more balanced view of the value of British forces being in that country.

• Pacificweather

  The Lib-Dems have rightly been written off time and time again because a party can get a 66 seat majority on 36% of the vote as in 2005. By a flook the Lib-Dems got a chance to change the politics in Britain for ever and they threw it away. So now they will be reconsigned to the wilderness. This would have saddened me had it not been for the outcome of the FPTP vs AV referendum. Which demonstrated the the English have absolutely no interest whatsoever in democratically electing their MPs let alone their goverment. So all is well in the best of all possible worlds.

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