Still in the brother’s shadow

Labour’s 10-point lead in the polls might be only seven points if we allow for the Ed Miliband Effect, I conclude in my column for The Independent on Sunday today. But that’s enough for a Labour majority of 80, so I do not dismiss the possibility that Ed M might be prime minister in 2015.

He is not secure, however. It is striking that he has failed to shake off the shadow of his brother after two years in the job. The Conservatives’ poll yesterday suggested that two-thirds of voters still think that the trade unions imposed the wrong choice on the Labour Party.

Today, the television cameras paid such attention to the arrival of David Miliband at the Manchester conference centre that they failed to notice Ed walking in behind.

Nor does David M show any sign of sloping off to do a different job. Tonight he addresses the Movement for Change fringe meeting, and this is the first paragraph of his prepared remarks, issued in a news release:

Ed has challenged us to reinvent our politics as well as rethink our policies. He is right. In Britain and around the world politics is marked by gridlock – from the third runway and long term care at home to the Eurozone crisis and the civil war in Syria abroad.

That is quite cheekily unfraternal: my brother is right that he should rethink his policies, and the first policy I nominate is the third runway at Heathrow, which I support and he opposes, although he used to support it in government.

Another (former) supporter of the third runway is Ed Balls, and it was interesting what Ed Miliband had to say about him in his Observer interview today:

Will Balls definitely be chancellor if there is a Labour government? “I think I’ll make my Cabinet when it comes to … I think measuring the curtains is not my style.”

So Balls is not guaranteed to be chancellor? “Oh come off it. No.” Why not? “You start with one member of the cabinet and then you move on to all of them. Look. Ed and I work incredibly closely together and we’re a team and we’re going to be a team going into the election.”

My guess is that Ed M simply maintained maximum room for manoeuvre, but it does prompt a little pointless speculation about who else might get the job. David M? Rachel Reeves?

Photograph: Lefteris Pitarakis/AP

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• JohnJustice

  JR, just another piece supporting my view that public opinion doubts about Miliband are being fuelled by the coverage (or non-coverage) that the media are giving to him. I have an unlikely ally on this thesis in the rather comely shape of the Tory MP, Nadine Dorrie. Writing at the Conservative Home site, under the heading “Ed Miliband is still a mystery opponent – to underestimate him would be foolish” she says this

  . “Up until now, Ed Miliband has been suffering from a deficit of television and newsprint coverage. It has appeared as though the media have struggled to accept that he and not his brother David (mean, lean friend of Hilary Clinton and thereby more interesting to write about) won the leadership election. It is possibly still a fact that David, who when in office, had a high profile ministerial role, is for now still the better known of the two.When Ed Milliband was elected as party leader in 2010, I commented that he really shouldn’t be underestimated and I find the assumed complacency embodied in the words “the greatest gift to the Conservative party is Ed Miliband” frustrating. The Westminster elite know how Ed performs at PMQs, but we don’t yet know how, with enhanced media coverage, he is going to play out in front of the British public and, in the meantime, the Labour party still enjoys a frighteningly large lead in the polls.
  When the online pollsters gather information regarding public opinion of Ed, people are commenting on the basis of very little to go on. The ticks placed in boxes are done so with minimal information. The fact that six out of ten can’t see him as a Prime Minister means nothing when they don’t see very much of him at all. Ed Milliband is still a rapidly developing, and to many, unknown quantity. And what is worse, he is genuinely an extremely kind and really nice guy.”

  Couldn’t have put it better myself although I think the unfair denigratory remarks of his opponents (from the left as well as the right) are also a factor in current attitudes.

• http://www.twitter.com/sanelynch Sean Lynch

  What absolute twaddle. The unions “imposed” Ed Miliband on us all. Yeh, they imposed it when their third of the electoral college voted rather unanimously for Ed – much like they did Tony Blair. That’s democracy in action John, you might not like it but it’s the best thing we’ve got.

• http://www.facebook.com/people/Brian-Jamieson/629899261 Brian Jamieson

  Since personality really means something in politics I believe Ed’s warm sincere
  character will shine through compared to David’s calculated coldness to win an
  election. Ed has the mouth of Wallace and the eyes of Gromit with camera
  appeal. He just needs the Aardman team to produce his next election campaign.
  David is more like Ren from Ren & StImpy, kind of funny but Stimpy always
  steals the show. Next to David, Ed comes across like Stimpy who has more public
  appeal. Since the public love the buffoonery of London’s Lord Mayor, Labour
  should seriously hire an animator for the next election.

• http://twitter.com/JohnRentoul John Rentoul

  The union section was the only one to have an Ed M majority, 60-40. It therefore decided the election against the votes of the party members and MPs, who had David M majorities. That is “imposing”. I didn’t like it but I accepted it.

• stonedwolf

  Why o why would JR be pro-David and anti-Ed?

  Oh yeah. David was for the massacring of Muslism for oil and bragging rights, and Ed was against it.

  /memory_lane

• JohnJustice

  Utter tosh!
  With friends like you re Ed who needs enemies.

• stonedwolf

  I’m no friend of Ed. He’s a true-blue Tory, like the other parties and like his brother. Just pointing out one of the very few differences between the pair of weirdoes.

  I’m SNP.

• takeoman

  Your constant sniping show that you did not and have not accepted the fact that your man lost,.

• takeoman

  Occasionally,as in this case, I agree with you. However I think you should have taken Rentoul J to task as he is one of the worst offenders.