iBet: Italy are low-scorers, even against the minnows

World Cup Qualification

Armenia v Italy, kick off 5pm

Back under 2.5 goals at 8/11

Italy rarely ‘cut loose’ in qualification and it may pay to expect another low-scoring encounter against Armenia. In qualifying unbeaten for Euro 2012, Italy’s games averaged 2.2 goals, and away from home it was even less. Italy played five games on their travels and they finished 1-2, 0-0, 0-1, 0-1 and 1-1, for a goals-per-game average of just 1.4. And nothing changed when they faced so-called minnows. Those results included a goalless draw with Northern Ireland and a 1-0 victory against the Faroe Islands, who are ranked 150 places below them in the Fifa rankings. Armenia are 94 places higher than the Faroes. Their two Group B games so far have produced two goals, and they are unlikely to go ‘gung ho’ against Prandelli’s men. Indeed they seem to keep things tight against the better teams, whereas their games against weaker nations see more goals. Their two home games against the teams who were first and second in their Euro 2012 qualification group finished 0-1, and 0-0. Either back under 2.5 goals with the major bookies, or if you want to be safer, lay over 3.5 goals with Betfair.

Advices

Luxembourg are not as abject as many think these days, as illustrated by a 1-1 draw in Northern Ireland and a narrow 2-1 defeat to Portugal so far in Group F. They have won two of their last six home games and a low-risk, potentially high-reward trade may be to lay their opponents Israel, who are long odds on (1/3) to win, with Betfair.

Betfair gives you better value. To see how much more you can win go to www.betfair.com/betchecker

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