Labour level on the economy: ComRes poll

Ed Miliband and Ed Balls have pulled level with Cameron and Osborne on the economy, as Labour increase their lead to 8 points in a ComRes opinion poll for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror.

Conservative   33% (-2)

Labour          41% (+2)

Lib Dem       10% (0)

UKIP         9% (+1)

Others       7% (-1)

(Change since last month’s ComRes online poll.) On the existing constituency boundaries this would produce a Labour majority of 102 seats.

Of those who voted Conservative in the 2010 general election, 10% now say that they would vote UKIP.

Ed Miliband’s leadership approval rating has improved – now 29% say that he is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party, the highest since we began asking this is December 2010.

After his conference speech, more people (33%) see Labour as more the “one nation” party than say the same of the Conservatives (25%).

Most people (63%) do not expect the economy to return to good health for at least five years.

Leadership

David Cameron is turning out to be a good prime minister

Agree 29% (+2 since August)
Disagree 50% (-4)

Net Agree -21 (+6)

Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party

Agree 29% (+4)
Disagree 40% (-5)

Net Agree -11 (+9)

Nick Clegg is turning out to be a good leader of the Liberal Democrats

Agree 18% (-2)
Disagree 56% (+1)

Net Agree -38 (-3)

The fact that David Cameron went to Eton makes it harder for him to be a good Prime Minister for the whole country

Agree 38% (+4 since July)
Disagree 42% (-2)

Those in social grades DE are the most likely social grade to agree (44%). Only 13% of Conservative voters agree.

The fact that Ed Miliband went to a comprehensive school means that he is more likely to be in touch with the concerns of most people

Agree  37%
Disagree  45%

Even 13% of Conservative voters agree.

The Economy

I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy

Agree 26% (+1 since August)
Disagree 51% (-3)

Net Agree -25 (+4)

I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy

Agree 24% (+4)
Disagree 49% (-3)

Net Agree -25 (+7)

I expect the economy will start showing signs of improvement soon

Agree 30% (+7 since Nov 2011)
Disagree 48% (-7)

I do not expect the economy to return to good health for at least five years

Agree 63%
Disagree 17%

Women (66%) are more pessimistic than men (59%) about the future of the economy. Half (52%) of Conservative voters do not expect the economy to return to good health for at least five years, as do 71% of Labour voters and 61% of Liberal Democrat voters.

I plan to spend less on Christmas this year than last year

Agree 55% (-6 since Nov 2011)
Disagree 26% (no change)

Women are more likely than men to agree (58% vs. 52% respectively). Those aged 35-54 are the most likely age group to agree (61%).

It is more important to keep young people in work than it is to reduce government borrowing

Agree  56%
Disagree  19%

Of Conservative voters, 36% agree, compared with 77% of Labour voters, and 62% of Liberal Democrat voters.

A Labour government under Ed Miliband would be better at protecting people’s jobs

Agree 31% (no change since July)
Disagree 41% (-1)

24% of Labour voters say they ‘don’t know’.

In most cases I have sympathy for people going on strike against public spending cuts

Agree 46% (-2 since Nov 2011)
Disagree 38% (no change)

“One Nation”

Labour is more of a “one nation” party than the Conservatives

Agree  33%
Disagree  36%
Don’t know  30%

The Conservatives are more of a “one nation” party than Labour

Agree  25%
Disagree  45%
Don’t know  31%

(The statement is reversed because “disagree” includes people who think there is no difference.)

Europe

The UK has nothing to fear from leaving the European Union

Agree  43%
Disagree  29%
Don’t know  29%

Half (52%) of Conservative voters agree, but a quarter (25%) of them disagree. Labour voters are evenly divided: 34% agree, 35% disagree.

ComRes interviewed 2,010 British adults online on 17 and 18 October 2012. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all British adults aged 18+. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.

Photograph: Getty

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• http://twitter.com/GraculasNog Ozeymendiaz.

  rather Ed than Slasher Osborne and call me Dave snakeoil.

• Junius

  ‘I do not expect the economy to return to good health for at least five years

  Agree 63%
  Disagree 17%’

  It should have been a good week for the Tories, what with better news on jobs – the unemployment rate falling and a record number of people in work; on public sector borrowing – £12.8bn in September, down from £13.5bn in the same month last year; and retail sales rising – sales volumes up 0.6% last month, compared with a 0.1% fall in August. Then came the Mitchell resignation and the George Osborne rail ticket brouhaha, and Dave ended in the fertiliser. Again.

  Cue Ed Miliband ending the week smelling of roses? No, poor old Ed got roundly barracked – worse, got televised being roundly barracked – at some rally for telling the demonstrators a few home truths. And now it transpires that while the Chancellor is one of 460 MPs who have not claimed for first-class rail tickets in the past year, the same cannot be said for 113 representatives of the horny-handed sons of toil, including ten opposition front-benchers, so they may travel in the style to which they have become accustomed.

  No mention of Ed’s barracking or Labour MPs’ first-class travel jollies on the scrupulously even-handed and impartial Indyonline, needless to add.

• Pacificweather

  Ask a stupid question ……..
  I have been planning to spend less on Christmas for the past 26 yeas but my wife usually has other plans.

  It is interesting that nearly every question has around 30% of don’t answers. Only 6% short of the number of votes the Labour party got in 2005 when they gained a 66 seat majority. Are the don’t knows saying, “Stop asking me stupid questions” or are they saying, “Ask me again closer to the election when this poll might tell you something meaningful”.

• Pacificweather

  As for the question that is actually a statement, “The UK has nothing to fear from leaving the European Union” the only honest and intelligent people are the ones who answered “don’t know”.

  It would be good to ask some of the questions after EM’s disasterous speech at the anti-cuts rally. What a plonker he is. Instead of rousing the faithful he plays to the Daily Mail reading voters who will never vote for him because they think he looks like a cartoon character. Up to now it has been Cameron displaying the political suicide cards but now EM has taken up his mantle. If you ever doubted that the main qualifification for being a politician is to be deeply, truly, stupid your doubts will have been dispelled.

• creggancowboy

  UKIP have upped their game, from BNP in blazers to realising that the EU is just another rich men’s club. Fewer public school boys than Tory/ZaNuLabour.

• takeoman

  Do the other 459 follow Osborne G’s example, buy standard tickets but sit in first class?

• mactheanti

  Did you actually see the same rally as everyone else? Most people know that it was the SWP that booed Ed Miliband, a couple of dozen of them rudely shoved their way to the front and stood there like idiots booing everyone and everything. Did you not see the footage where people started shouting at them to shut up and go away? SWP boo anyone, especially Labour leaders, they have replies to everything but answers to nothing.Obviously not. Looks like Ed Miliband is not coming to the fore, it’s a long race and he is pacing himself brilliantly.
  I have been undecided over Ed, but this past few months a man of decency, honesty and integrity is emerging, coupled with a granite like determination to do what is right, he didn’t mind being barracked, he stood his ground and said what he had to say and I respect someone like him who shows strength and leadership under duress and his leadership and he personally has been roundly attacked, yet he’s remained strong and honest. Ed Miliband is going to make a brilliant PM and he is already more of a statesman than dithering lying incompetent weak Cameron can ever hope to be.

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