Estate agents are furiously rubbing their crystal balls

Alex Johnson

e026b6a4b5eab07ca353c9ea2c2149c3016abdb6 300x225 Estate agents are furiously rubbing their crystal ballsIt’s that time of year again when estate agents predict what the property market will look like in 12 months, five years and in the next couple of decades.

Earlier in the week we reported on Knight Frank’s long range forecasting which suggested a 2% drop in house prices in 2013, breaking that down regionally, including East Anglia down 0.7%, East Midlands down 1%, North West down 2.6%, Scotland down 3.2%, South West down 2.2%, Wales down 3.8% and Yorkshire down 1.8%. Overall, they predicted that 2007 house price levels won’t be reached again until 2031.

Their figures came hard on the heels of Hamptons International who suggested UK house prices will rise 2% in 2013 (followed by similar rises in the following two years and then a slightly larger one in 2016), a static rental market, and a tiny rise in the total of sales.

The latest mystic predictions come from Savills today. “The market conditions we called ‘normality’ ten years ago will not be resumed anytime soon,” said Yolande Barnes, Director Residential Research who predicts low house price growth. “The structure of the housing market has changed, if not permanently then at least for the foreseeable future. There have been wide geographical differences in the performance of housing in the past five years, a trend we expect to continue over the next five years based on assumptions of continued constrained lending conditions and a slow economic recovery.”

Like the other agents, Savills believes London house price growth (especially in the “Prime” area of the capital) will be well ahead of the UK average for the next five years at 21%, with the south east at 19.5%, Yorkshire 5.5%, Wales, 11.5% and Scotland 6%. Overall, it predicts mainstream house prices will rise 11.5% by 2017. Similarly, London will lead the increase in rents over this period at 26% compared to a UK rise in general of 18%. Next year, Savills estimates UK rents will rise by an average of 2.5%.

There will be lots more predictions from agents in the coming weeks but what do you think will happen next year. And indeed in five or 20 years?

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  • Itchingpowder

    “Estate agents are furiously rubbing their crystal balls”

    Not made like the rest of us, are they?

  • Ken Ward

    hopefully their balls will break! the robbing leaches!

  • Newsbot9

    No, they’re looking at the insufficient house-building rate and knowing that it will continue to rise over inflation. It’s a literal captive audience…you need housing!

    2.5% lol…no, it’ll be WELL above inflation (again). And I mean RPI, not the CPI the government have shackled housing benefit to…

  • Pingback: Is 2013 the year when everybody moves out of London? | Alex Johnson | Independent Property Blogs

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