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More Europe trouble for Cameron

John Rentoul

cam brussels 300x168 More Europe trouble for CameronLabour has moved into a 12-point lead in a ComRes poll for The Independent on Sunday tomorrow, shared with the Sunday Mirror. This is the highest Labour lead in a ComRes poll for seven years (since March 2005).

Conservative     31% (-2)
Labour                43% (+2)
Lib Dem              10% (0)
UKIP                     8% (-1)
Others                  8% (+1)

Change since last month’s ComRes online poll.

As the Prime Minister prepares to go to a Brussels summit next week to negotiate the European Union’s budget, the poll also finds that 26% of Tory voters would “seriously consider” voting for UKIP in a general election. It also finds that 58% agree that “If some EU powers cannot be restored to the UK, we should leave the EU”.

Switchable voters

..

Which, if any, of these parties would you seriously consider voting for at a General Election if it were held tomorrow? Please indicate all that apply.
Currently intending to vote Conservative
Labour
Lib Dem
Conservative
-
5% (-)
31% (+4)
Labour
7% (+1)
-
24% (+3)
Liberal Democrat
18% (+4)
13% (+3)
-
Green
7% (+2)
18% (-1)
29% (+1)
UKIP
26% (-)
13% (+2)
10% (-4)
BNP
3% (+1)
5% (-1)
3% (-)
Pirate Party
2% (+1)
2% (-)
5% (+3)
Respect Party
1% (+1)
4% (-)
5% (+1)
SNP
* (-1)
3% (+1)
1% (+1)
Plaid Cymru
* (-1)
3% (-)
2% (+2)
None of these
41% (-1)
40% (-2)
26% (+7)
Don’t know
7% (-2)
8% (-1)
4% (-4)
Figures in brackets represent changes from the last time we asked this question 16-17 May 2012.

..

Europe

If some EU powers cannot be restored to the UK, we should leave the EU

Agree 58%

Disagree 18%

Don’t know 23%

Of Conservative voters 66% agree; 53% of Labour voters; and 39% of Liberal Democrat voters, but this is still more than the 32% of Lib Dems who disagree.

The UK should leave the EU regardless

Agree 43%

Disagree 33%

Don’t know 24%

Of Conservative voters 45% agree and 31% disagree; even Labour voters agree by a margin of 39% to 37%; whereas only 23% of Lib Dem voters agree and 57% disagree.

The UK’s payments to the European Union budget should be cut rather than frozen

Agree 66%

Disagree 12%

Don’t know 22%

Other questions

Banks and pay-day loan companies should be required by law to tell borrowers the maximum they will have to pay on loans

Agree 92%

Disagree 2%

Big companies operating in Britain should not be permitted to use offshore bases to avoid paying tax in this country

Agree 84%

Disagree 7%

George Entwistle, who resigned as Director General of the BBC, should not have received his £1.32 million severance package

Agree 77%

Disagree 9%

Older people are more disapproving: 88% of those aged 65 and over agree.

MPs should not go on reality TV shows whilst they are still an MP

Agree 73%

Disagree 14%

Voters for Nadine Dorries’s own party are the most likely to be censorious: 78% agree.

The Government should prioritise a cut to fuel duty over other tax cuts

Agree 66%

Disagree 15%

ComRes interviewed 2,024 GB adults online 14-16 November 2012. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.

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  • Junius

    Today’s Observer has an opinion poll showing that Labour’s lead over the Tories has dropped from 11pc to 7pc.

    A YouGov poll for The Sun published on 14th Nov shows Labour’s lead at 7pc; that published on 15th Nov shows Labour’s lead at 10pc; while today’s for the Sunday Times shows Labour’s lead at 11pc.

    The Telegraph reports Labour’s lead narrowing by one point since late September in the ICM poll putting the party on 36pc, five points ahead of the Tories on 31pc and the Lib Dems on 18pc, respondents predicting the vote in the next general election.

    So Labour’s champion greasy pole climber is claiming that Middle Britain is abandoning the Tories, after winning the Corby byelection on a 12pc swing? Three years into Margaret Thatcher’s first administration (which also took power after Labour had trashed the economy), the Liberals won a by-election in Tory stronghold Croydon N-W on a 24pc swing. Who won the 1983 general election by a landslide? In 1986 the Tories lost true-blue Rydale on a swing of 19pc to the SDP/Lib Alliance. Who won the 1987 general election by a landslide? In 1990, John Major’s Tories lost safe Mid-Staffordshire on a 21pc swing to Labour. Who won the 1992 general election?

    The tribune of the horny-handed sons of toil has yet some work to do.

  • http://twitter.com/francessmith frances smith

    i just looked at the uk polling report website to check your information,, but i can’t find this observer poll, though there was a ipsos mori poll published on the 15th giving labour a 14% lead.

    denial is not going to help the tories, you know.

  • Junius

    Go to today’s Observer online, click on the headline “56% of Britons would vote to quit EU”, and scroll down almost to the end of the article.

  • wilsoan

    If you have a look around the many blogs and comments today on several websites on the subject of the EU you find a majority of commentators ready to vote to leave the EU on the issue of prisoner voting. This says a lot about the willingness of europhobic politicians to mislead the public, but it also raises questions about the wisdom of holding a referendum when a majority of the voters are so fundamentally ignorant.

    For a poll to ask if we should leave the EU “if some EU powers cannot be restored to the UK” is also dishonest, unless the powers to be returned are specified. It is particularly ironic that the powers the Tory right and UKIP would like to get back are powers to abolish rules on unfair dismissal, safety at work, health, etc, yet the working class voters who blindly follow them seem quite unaware of this.

    During the AV referendum campaign both the party leaders stated that the electorate are not capable of making a simple ranking of preferences. Perhaps their contempt is justified.


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