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Labour lead up 4 points as UKIP surges

John Rentoul

farage2 300x168 Labour lead up 4 points as UKIP surgesLabour has increased its lead as Conservative voters defect to UKIP, according to a ComRes poll for The Independent on Sunday tomorrow, shared with the Sunday Mirror.  UKIP support has reached 17 per cent, its highest in any ComRes poll:

Con  28% (-3)
Lab  37% (+1)
UKIP  17% (+3)
Lib Dem 9% (+1)
Green   4% (0)
Others  5% (-1)

Change since last month’s ComRes online poll.

The Budget

With the Budget coming up next week, the level of trust in David Cameron and George Osborne on the economy has hit a record low:

I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy
Agree 23% (-6 since last year) Disagree 56% (+7)

But Cameron and Osborne still remain just ahead of the Opposition:

I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy
Agree 20% (+5 since last year) Disagree 55% (-4)

A majority agree that austerity is failing:

The Chancellor George Osborne’s current economic plan is not working
Agree 56% Disagree 19%

One in four (26%) Conservative voters agree as do 67% of UKIP voters.

The Chancellor George Osborne’s current economic plan is right for the country in the long term
Agree: 24% Disagree: 48%

More Lib Dem voters disagree (39%) than agree (28%).

And more oppose a rise in beer duty than support it:

The Chancellor George Osborne should not increase tax on beer in the Budget next week
Agree: 42% Disagree: 36%

Conservative leadership

After a week of speculation about Tory plots against David Cameron’s leadership, the balance of public opinion is against a change of leadership, although there are many don’t knows:

The Conservative Party would have a better chance of winning the next election if it replaced David Cameron as leader

Agree 28% Disagree 38% Don’t know 34%

While 15% current Conservative voters agree, almost half (48%) of UKIP voters agree (24% disagree). This suggests that a change of leader would attract some of the support lost to UKIP although doubtless current Conservative voters’ support could be put in jeopardy by doing so.

Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, would make a good prime minister

Agree 33% Disagree 42% Don’t know 25%

More Londoners disagree (43%) than agree (36%).

More UKIP voters agree (45%) than disagree (35%) suggesting some support could be won back from UKIP with Boris Johnson as Conservative leader.

Theresa May, the Home Secretary, would make a good prime minister

Agree 19% Disagree 45% Don’t know 36%

Women (18%) are no more likely to agree than men (19%).

Assets and liabilities

We also sought to assess whether leaders were assets or liabilities to their parties by asking whether people had a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the four leading parties and their leaders:

Favourable:

David Cameron 26%

Conservative Party 23%

Ed Miliband 19%

Labour Party 28%

Nick Clegg 13%

Liberal Democrats 16%

Nigel Farage 24%

UKIP 30%

The full figures:

Favourable
Unfavourable
Neither
Don’t know
Net %
David Cameron
26%
49%
20%
6%
-23%
The Conservative Party generally
23%
50%
20%
7%
-27%
Ed Miliband
19%
47%
25%
8%
-28%
The Labour Party generally
28%
44%
21%
7%
-16%
Nick Clegg
13%
56%
25%
7%
-43%
The Liberal Democrats generally
16%
52%
25%
7%
-36%
Nigel Farage
24%
27%
31%
17%
-3%
UKIP generally
30%
31%
28%
12%
-1%

ComRes interviewed 2,015 GB adults online on 13-14 March 2013. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.

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  • http://twitter.com/vicarjim4 james cooper

    its almost time to say goodbye, unless you do some thing soonMR cameron you will be the pm that almost was. IT IS ALL ABOUT THE E.U. this poll was taken before the Cyprus debacle, British ex pats having money taken from their bank accounts and our troops too what kind of Europe have you and all your predessors taken us into. Referendum this week please befoer the come for our crown jewels , You will sink even further in the polls when that information is revealed .The E.U you support is leading you and this country down the drain, Out now MR CAMERON NOT FOR YOUR SAKE BUT THE SAKE OF THE BRITISH PEOPLE

  • http://twitter.com/WrathofRune Wrath of Rune

    I do wonder what would happen if the Conservtive vote dipped below 25%, surely thats not recoverable?

    But Labour’s numbers look pretty soft, if Tories defect to UKIP in Labour seats and gather up some from Labour and Libs, could UKIP nab a few seats off Labour? At this stage it doesn’t look likely, but if something serious happens in the Eurozone or EU (e.g. bank runs and taxes on savings in Italy/Spain/France), Labour would be extremely vulnerable. I think they have painted themselves into a corner and end up with the same credibility problem the Tories have.

    Lib Dem numbers look poor, harrowing, yet they still have the ground game. In a general election, do they really have enough resources to hold onto all their seats, let alone win new ones? I very much doubt it.

    The only thing this really tells us is that everyone hates Cameron, Clegg and Miliband. I’m not sure thats particularly healthy in the long term…

  • JohnJustice

    The lack of trust in Miliband and Balls on the economy is largely the creation of biased economically illiterate political pundits putting their views across to an economically illiterate voting public.

  • reformist lickspittle

    Add to that the “maxed out the credit card”, “a national economy should be run just like that of a household” and “magic money tree” memes…….

    Baby talk, but disturbingly effective.

    Never mind, Osborne continues to dig his own grave.

  • reformist lickspittle

    No, Labour support is the very opposite of “soft”. In the months after the GE a significant chunk of previous LibDem support went over to them, and has stayed there.

    All else is hype, fluff and froth.

  • Shadowworld

    It scares me the UK has so many right wing loons….

  • Pingback: Thatcher: divisive, half right and not “the greatest” | John Rentoul | Independent Eagle Eye Blogs


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