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iBet: Grand National trends point to strong showing from Chicago Grey

Gareth Purnell

Grand National, Saturday

Back Chicago Grey each way at 14-1

Many think The Grand National is something of a lottery, and while it’s certainly true that any horse can fall or get brought down, there are some trends that suggest otherwise. Four stats would have given you the last 11 winners and they are as follows. The horse needs to be aged nine years or older; needs to have won over three miles or longer; must have run at least 10 times; and must have won a Class 1 or 2 chase.

Of the horses who fulfil those four criteria, my pick is Gordon Elliott’s 10-year-old Chicago Grey, who was brought down in 2012. The trainer knows what it takes, having won in 2007 with Silver Birch, and the horse also ticks another important box. Every winner for the last 20 years had run at least three times that season – with 18 of the 20 having between four and six runs. This will be Chicago Grey’s sixth run of the season. He recently had a breathing operation and it was proven successful when he won the £21,000 Red Mills Steeplechase at Navan over 2m 4f in February, staying on well. That was on heavy ground, but if the going comes up ‘good’ that will increase my confidence in a bold showing. He’s won over four miles on good ground at Cheltenham – a race worth £45,000. There’s plenty of 14-1 about, but most firms offering that price pay only the top four places. Note that BetVictor are offering 11-1 about Chicago Grey, but pay out on the top six to finish. Betfair allow you to just bet on a horse to be placed.

Betfair gives you better value. To see how much more you can win go to www.betfair.com/betchecker

betfair6302 300x65 iBet: Grand National trends point to strong showing from Chicago Grey

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