iBet: Should Madrid really be favourites to win in Germany?
Borussia Dortmund V Real Madrid, kick off 7.45pm
Lay Real Madrid at 2.64 with Betfair
When betting we are looking for value and it seems to me that the market is over-estimating Real Madrid’s chances of winning in Dortmund. It’s true that Mourinho is concentrating entirely on the Champions League but the same can be said for Jurgen Klopp’s men, with the Bundesliga and German Cup both gone. It should be remembered that not only did Dortmund win their group, beating Madrid to top spot, they also took four points off the Spaniards, winning at home and with only an 88th minute free kick from Mesut Ozil (which went in off the post) denying them victory at the Bernabeu. Klopp later revealed that his tactic had been to cut off the supply line to Cristiano Ronaldo by man marking Xabi Alonso out of the game with Gotze. Presumably he will try to do so again and although Mourinho is nobody’s fool and will have learnt from that, on current evidence I think it’s very arguable whether his side should be 6/4 favourites to in the Westfalenstadion. Madrid are a fine side and of course could win, but the value is to get with the home side, who have won all of their Champions League home games so far.
After his antics against Chelsea Luis Suarez is 1/6 to miss the rest of the season and 7/2 that he will play again this season. It’s 7/4 that he won’t play for Liverpool again with Bayern Munich 5/2 favourites to be his next club.
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