iBet: Watford may be the value in tight play-off picture
Back Watford to gain promotion at 100/30
Lay Leicester versus Watford at 2.12
It’s quite interesting how the bookmakers have priced up the Championship play-offs especially with regards to Watford, who are at Leicester tonight and live on Sky Sports 1 (7.45pm kick off). Leicester sneaked into the play-offs with a last-gasp win over Nottingham Forest in an all-or-nothing fixture.
Watford just missed out on automatic promotion and finished nine points clear of Leicester over the season. Zola’s men won five more games, scored more goals, and had a better goal difference. Watford also won both of their meetings this season 2-1. Yet the bookies make Leicester 5/2 for promotion with Brighton 9/4, with Watford 100/30 and Crystal Palace the outsiders at 4/1.
The stats suggest that the team finishing fifth (Crystal Palace this year) has the best chance of promotion – coming in seven times out of the last 20. However, on value grounds I think Watford are the bet. For tonight’s game on the fixed odds, Leicester are even money favourites with Watford 13/5 and the draw 12/5. Given their records over the season, the home side may be a lay on the exchanges at 2.12.
A Leicester V Brighton final is the favourite at 13/8, with Watford V Brighton 23/10, Leicester V Crystal Palace 31/10 and Watford V Crystal Palace 4/1.
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