UKIP Surges to Record High
The UK Independence Party is on 19 per cent, the highest share recorded by any pollster, in a ComRes poll for tomorrow’s The Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror. Labour, on 35 per cent, have the lowest vote share in a ComRes poll since October 2010, and its lead has fallen to six points.
Con 29% (-1)
Lab 35% (-3)
UKIP 19% (+4)
Lib Dem 8% (0)
Others 9% (0)
(Change since the last ComRes online poll in mid-April.)
The Martin Baxter calculator, now refined to account for UKIP, suggests that Labour would win a majority of 74 seats (although UKIP would win none). Note that ComRes’s UKIP vote share in the recent local elections was within 0.7 points of the result.*
David Cameron’s personal rating has fallen to a record low (26% say he is a good prime minister) while Ed Miliband’s has risen to its highest level recorded by ComRes (31% say he is a good leader of the Labour Party).
By a margin of 46% to 24% people say they would vote to leave the EU in a referendum, but “if some EU powers are restored to the UK” the figures are almost reversed: 24% would vote to leave and 43% would vote to stay.
My assessment for today’s The Independent on Sunday is here.
Which of the following party leaders do you think would make the best prime minister?
David Cameron 32%
Ed Miliband 24%
Nick Clegg 6%
Don’t know 38%
Of UKIP supporters, 29% say David Cameron would make the best prime minister, 6% Ed Miliband, 3% Nick Clegg and 62% don’t know.
David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister
_____________Dec 2010 Today
Agree 38% 26%
Disagree 41% 51%
Net Agree -3 -25
The proportion who agree, 26%, is the lowest recorded by ComRes.
Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party
_____________Dec 2010 Today
Agree 17% 31%
Disagree 32% 42%
Don’t know 50% 27%
Net Agree -15 -11
The proportion who agree, 31%, is the highest recorded by ComRes.
Two-thirds, 66%, of Labour voters agree that Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the party, but one in seven, 15%, disagree.
Ed Miliband is likely to be Prime Minister after the next election
Don’t know: 32%
Although 59% of Labour voters agree, 10% disagree and 31% don’t know.
If a referendum were held on Britain’s membership of the EU, I would vote for Britain to leave the EU
_____________May 2012 Jan 2013 Today
Agree 46% 43% 46%
Disagree 30% 31% 24%
Don’t know 23% 26% 30%
Net Agree +16 +12 +22
UKIP voters are the most likely to agree with this statement (85%). Conservative voters are more likely to agree (49%) than disagree (19%). Labour voters are divided: 37% agree they would vote to leave while 36% disagree. Lib Dems are most pro-EU: 44% disagree and 30% agree.
If some EU powers are restored to the UK then I would vote in a referendum to stay in the EU
Don’t know: 34%
Conservative (54%), Labour (48%) and Lib Dem voters (67%) are all more likely to agree with this statement than disagree. Only UKIP voters are more likely to disagree (46%) than agree (23%).
If a party wants my support at the next general election, it is important to me that they offer a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU
Don’t know: 24%
Older voters are more likely to agree with this statement than younger voters. Two-thirds (67%) of those aged 65 and over agree compared to just a third (35%) of those aged 18-24. Conservative voters support the Prime Minister’s position, with more than half (56%) saying that they agree compared with 23% that disagree. Labour voters are divided on this issue, 36% agree whilst 39% disagree. Of UKIP voters, 87% agree and only 6% disagree.
The Conservative Party is more divided over Europe now than it was when John Major was Prime Minister
Don’t know: 29%
Even Conservative voters are more likely to agree (43%) than disagree (26%). Three-quarters (74%) of UKIP voters agree.
David Cameron has the authority over his party that he needs to be an effective Prime Minister
Don’t know: 24%
Two-thirds of UKIP voters (65%) disagree with this statement as do one in five (18%) current Conservative voters.
ComRes interviewed 2,017 GB adults online on 15 and 16 May 2013. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all adults and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables on the ComRes website.
*There are some in the polling industry, such as Survation, who think UKIP are consistently understated since ComRes does not mention them in the voting intention question, which does refer to the Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem parties. ICM, Populus, YouGov and Ipsos MORI do the same. ComRes’s local election poll ought to put the matter to rest.Tagged in: comres, opinion polls
Latest from Independent journalists on Twitter