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iBet: Even at odds-on, a Muirfield open hole in one may be of value

Gareth Purnell

The Open Championship, Muirfield, starts July 18th

Back a hole in one at 1.72 with Betfair

Bookmakers very rarely make mistakes, which is why looking for value is more important than anything else when it comes to profitable betting. However, some 20 years ago the notorious ‘Hole In One’ gang made a killing on betting on an ace in the Majors at odds of up to 100/1. There were hole in ones at three of the four Majors that year, and the bookies will never make that mistake again. So if you could once get 100/1, how can odds-on be value? Well we simply have to ignore the prices the ‘Hole In One Gang’ got, and look at the facts. There have been three opens at Muirfield, and two of them have produced an ace. That suggests the odds should be two out of three, or in decimal terms 1.66. And you can back one at 1.72 with Betfair. Hardly a huge edge admittedly, but an edge all the same, and that’s all I’m looking for. And anyway, there are reasons for thinking it should be shorter still than 1.66. In Opens played away from St Andrews there have been 19 aces in 24 events, and there are three holes under 200 yards in length this time around – the seventh (where Billy Andrade aced in 1987 and Paul McGinley did in 1992), the 13th and the 16th, plus a long par three at the 4th. At 1.72 with Betfair on the ‘Will there be a hole in one market?’, I’m backing ‘yes’ on value grounds.

Advices
Costa Rica are too short to back to beat Belize outright in tonight’s Concacaf Cup 11pm kick off but you can get 5/6 about them winning keeping a clean sheet and that looks value. They have conceded only 0.67 goals a game in qualifying and Belize are not up to the standard of most of the teams they have been playing.

Betfair gives you better value. To see how much more you can win go to www.betfair.com/betchecker

betfiar new 300x135 iBet: Even at odds on, a Muirfield open hole in one may be of value

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  • GarethPurnell

    The article missed out the phrase ‘in the last 20 years’, as far back as I like to go…
    I agree 3 is not a viable sample mathematically.
    However I am simple justifying an investment opinion that I think 1.8 is a fair price.
    Do you think 1.8 is a fair price or a bad price?
    As far as I can see you are nor committing one way or the other? just having a general pop.
    That’s fine but remember its very easy to knock an opinion once its printed – the not so easy bit is putting your head above the parapet in the first place. And we will only know afterwards which is a bit useless from an investment perspective.
    So I repeat. Do you think 1.8 is a fair price or not?
    What are your betting tips for this year’s open?

  • GarethPurnell

    30


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