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iBet: Lotus like it hot!

Gareth Purnell

Hungarian Grand Prix, Sunday

Back Romain Grosjean for a top a six finish with Betfair at 1.86
Back the pole sitter not to win the race at ¾
Back Kimi Raikkonen each way at 6/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Back Sauber to have the first retirement at 9/1

Lewis Hamilton has a very good record in Hungary – he’s won there on three of the last six occasions. He’s also won the race to pole position in the last two races. However, the Englishman has failed to win on either occasion and although the Mercedes continues to be dominant over a flying lap, the team is hamstrung by the car’s issue with tire degradation and that will surely put them at a distinct disadvantage again this weekend, when air and track temperatures are predicted to be very high indeed.

Hamilton or his team mate Rosberg have secured six of the last seven poles and won only one of them – around Monaco where it’s all but impossible to overtake -  so the available odds about the pole sitter NOT winning the race of 3/4 (0.75) looks an attractive bet. The favourite for the race is of course Sebastian Vettel at 6/4, but he’s yet to win in Hungary I fancy looking for a bit of value in that market. One team to look closely at with the mercury rises is Lotus, represented by Kimi Raikkonen (6/1 with Betfair Sportsbook) and Romain Grosjean (18/1).

Grosjean is a frustrating driver for punters – who can be brilliant in one race and hopeless the next. But he certainly had his driving boots on at the Nurburgring two Sundays ago (when the track was hot and Lotus finished second and third) as he took the race to Vettel. He got a real tune out of the soft compound tires and was able to make them work much longer than any of his rivals – which bodes well for this weekend – and to my mind just a bit of bad luck which brought out a safety car, and some questionable strategy, robbed him of an obvious chance to take the race lead.

Last year’s race was also very hot, and Grosjean finished second. With team orders possible it’s hard to back him to win the race, but he should make the top six. Another car that’s kind on its tires is the Ferrari – Fernando Alonso is even money for a podium finish.

Advices
There are literally dozens of markets on the race and two interesting ones are the first driver and first team to retire. The smaller teams like Caterham and Marussia have showed more reliability this year yet they invariably go off favourites, which means there could be some value in the markets. A Sauber driver has been the first retirement in three out of the eight races so far this season. It’s speculative of course, but they look interesting to make it four this weekend at 9/1. Check out Oddschecker.com and look for the First Car Retirement market.

Betfair gives you better value. To see how much more you can win go to www.betfair.com/betchecker

betfiar new 300x135 iBet: Lotus like it hot!

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