iBet: Lambert’s Approach On The Road Usually Leads To Goals
Norwich V Aston Villa, kick off 12.45pm
Back over 2.5 goals at 10/11
I’m not convinced the bookies know how to price Villa games up. Since winning at The Emirates (at 10/1) Paul Lambert’s men have lost unluckily at Chelsea, and lost comprehensively at home to Liverpool and Newcastle. The problem for bookmakers is that Villa are better away from home than at home. They proved it last season, and the same pattern is emerging again. Villa’s strength lies in its pacey forward line.
On the break with Agbonlahor and Weimann, with Benteke to apply the finishing touch, they are as good as anyone in the Premier League. But at home they lack the creativity in midfield to break teams down. Norwich have been made 11/8 favourites to beat Villa (2/1) on Saturday and if I was betting on the match odds I would be tempted to back the Midlanders. The last two times they have played at Carrow Road they’ve won 2-1 and 4-1.
However, a safer bet may be to expect goals. Villa games are almost never 0-0, especially away from home when Lambert plays three up front. He even did that against Arsenal and got rewarded. Villa have now played in 16 consecutive competitive away fixtures that have gone over the 2.5 goals line. Norwich’s two home games this season have produced five goals and one of those was a 1-0 win against Southampton, who (unlike Villa) like to keep things painfully tight.
Talking of Southampton, I can see another low scoring encounter in their match at Anfield. Southampton are very negative, especially away from home, and their four league matches this season have produced only four goals. Liverpool are hardly putting teams away either. They’ve won three of their four games 1-0. There is value in going under 2.5 goals here at 10/11.
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