iBet: Capital One Cup Squad Rotation Usually Leads To Goals
Manchester United V Liverpool,Weds, kick off 7.45pm, Sky Sports 2
Back over 2.5 goals at ¾ (Betfair Sportsbook)
Consider over 2.5 goals multiple in the five all Premier League third round ties
History tells us to expect goals in all Premier League third round ties of the Capital One Cup. There have been 58 goals in 18 such games over the last five years – an average of more than three per game. One of the reasons there are usually plenty of goals in this competition is that managers are trying players out, and experiments at the back are bound to lead to mistakes. Another is that this is not the managers’ priority, so they are happy to ‘go for it’.
Last season every one of the all Premier League third round clashes went over the 2.5 goals line and with five such clashes over the next two days and the price on all of them producing at least three goals close to the even mark, a multiple could be in order. Instead, however, I’m looking to pick the one I think most likely to be open.
My initial thought was the Villa v Spurs tie where my two outright picks for the competition meet. However, Tottenham’s defence is too good and 2-0 is too big of a runner with Benteke injured. Instead look to Old Trafford. David Moyes has demanded an immediate reaction following an insipid effort against Manchester City on Sunday. He won’t name a first choice team and neither will Brendan Rodgers, but as discussed above, that’s is more likely to result in goals, especially with Luis Suarez likely to be in the Liverpool team.
Roberto Di Matteo has been made the bookies’ early favourite to replace Paulo Di Canio at Sunderland with prices ranging from ½ on, to even money. Gus Poyet is next in the betting at around 5/1. Manchester City’s brilliant performance on Sunday has seen them backed in the outright Premier League market. Pellegrini’s men are now best priced 15/8 favourites, which looks attractive. Chelsea are 100/30 (SkyBet), Manchester United out to 9/2 (Betfair Sportsbook), Arsenal a stand out 7/1 with Ladbrokes and Spurs are 11/1.
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