iBet: Napoli’s Need For Goals Could Open Things Up For Arsenal On The Counter
Napoli V Arsenal, kick off 7.45pm, Sky Sports 2
Back Theo Walcott to score at any time at 100/30 with William Hill
Arsenal need to avoid getting thumped 3-0 or worse in Napoli to go through and you would think in the form they are in they will get the job done. Arsenal have been brilliant away from home in 2013, winning 14 of their last 16, and what should give us confidence is their defence this season.
In the league they have the best defence bar none, having shipped only 11 goals in 15 games and Napoli fans won’t get much solace from their record on the road in the league either – they top the ‘away’ table despite having played a game less than most and not only have they conceded less than anyone else away from home (seven) but no-one has scored more than the 14 they have managed in seven games.
So if Arsenal can qualify from Group F, and they are 2/5 to do so, is there a value bet to be had at a working man’s price? Although Napoli need goals, in my opinion it’s unlikely that they will go gung-ho from the start because if they concede it’s surely all over for them.
On the spreads Spreadex pitch the time of the first goal at 33-36 minutes and there may be room there for profit for those brave enough to let the game run for 15 minutes or so before getting off. Arsenal’s excellence away from home isn’t just confined to the league – they have also won their Champions League away games this season at Marseille and Dortmund. So it’s easy to see why there’s been plenty of money for Wenger‘s men to win on the night at 2/1.
BetVictor go biggest about the home win at 31/20 with the draw certainly a runner at 13/5. Napoli have been strong at home in the Champions League, winning against both Dortmund and Marseille. But they seem to have gone off the boil a bit, emerging victorious only once in their last five and conceding 12 times in the process. You could envisage a situation where Napoli get frustrated and are forced to over-commit as the game wears on, opening things up for counters from some of Arsenal’s quicker players. If he gets a game, that could suit Walcott perfectly. If he doesn’t, we get our money back.
England have been woeful in the Ashes and they have a terrible record at the venue for the third Test, the Waca in Perth, which starts on Friday. There has been a flood of money for Cook’s men to be whitewashed 5-0 in the series, an eventuality that it now only 5/1 (Betway) and Bet365 and Spreadex fixed odds now go 9/1 that England can retain the Ashes. Australia are best price 8/11 to win the third test with England 11/4 and the draw 9/2.
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