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That Surge in Favour of Scottish Independence

John Rentoul

Yes 300x240 That Surge in Favour of Scottish IndependenceThis isn’t a great graph: best I could do quickly with Google Spreadsheet. But it shows those intending to vote Yes in all the polls on Scottish independence since January 2102 (when the referendum question was settled).

The figure is the percentage, excluding don’t knows, who say they will vote Yes. The horizontal time line is not even, as I have just stacked up all the polls, in order but regardless of fieldwork dates.

As you can see, the Yes percentage has never reached 50 per cent (except in one Panelbase survey, which asked leading questions and which I have excluded). If there has been a narrowing of the gap recently, it has been slight.

The figures are taken from Anthony Wells’s brilliant UK Polling Report site, and I have added the four most recent polls as follows (most recent first):

YouGov Yes 34% No 52% Yes excl DKs 40%
Survation Yes 32% No 52% Yes excl DKs 38%
TNS BMRB Yes 29% No 41% Yes excl DKs 41%
ICM Yes 37% No 44% Yes excl DKs 46%

Update: RF McCarthy has kindly redrawn the graph, starting in January 2013 (there were only eight polls in 2012), with fieldwork dates rather than a simple count along the horizontal axis. And he’s interpolated the trend line. Even though he has included the “leading” Panelbase survey (that’s the 51 per cent peak), there is less of a “surge” than in my effort.

Yes2 That Surge in Favour of Scottish Independence

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  • Pacificweather

    Does all that detract from the fact that the leader of one side was English and the leaders of the other side were Scots? All wars are many things but that is a true statement is it not as far as it goes? The kings were all foreigners back to the Romans and of all religions and none.

  • mightymark

    Culloden was NOT an England v Scotland fixture – period. I am not sure that Charles even saw himself as a Scots having been born and raised in Italy, while William’s German roots must still have been fairly close to the surface.

  • greggf

    By jove Peter, that’s put me in my place what…….!

  • greggf

    Excuse me for butting in mark, but are you saying Culloden was an Italian-German conflict on foreign soil…..?

  • Pacificweather

    Visigoths and Vikings with a touch of Gael.
     
    He is an Englishman! 
    For he himself has said it, 
    And it’s greatly to his credit, 
    That he is an Englishman! 

    For he might have been a Roosian, 
    A French, or Turk, or Proosian, 
    Or perhaps Itali-an! 

    But in spite of all temptations 
    To belong to other nations, 
    He remains an Englishman! 
    He remains an Englishman! 

  • mightymark

    No, I’m saying it was a very British conflict (Stuarts v Hanoverians – for power in England, Scotland and even Ireland – one of the most crucial conflicts in the history of this country) but for various reasons the leaders (a point which PW appears to find very important for some reason or other) had strong, perhaps stronger, links to other parts of Europe.

    Turning very briefly to PW, he is aware I take it, that WS Gilbert was a satirist and many of his lyrics, quote probably including “He is an Englishman” from HMS Pinafore were written tongue in cheek. In quoting it here PW might well have put himself in a similar position to the establishment noodles of the day who worried that during a Japanese state visit that offence might be given by the “Mikado” oblivious to the fact that the operetta was a skit, not on Japan but the very British establishment to which the noodles belonged!

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