That Surge in Favour of Scottish Independence
This isn’t a great graph: best I could do quickly with Google Spreadsheet. But it shows those intending to vote Yes in all the polls on Scottish independence since January 2102 (when the referendum question was settled).
The figure is the percentage, excluding don’t knows, who say they will vote Yes. The horizontal time line is not even, as I have just stacked up all the polls, in order but regardless of fieldwork dates.
As you can see, the Yes percentage has never reached 50 per cent (except in one Panelbase survey, which asked leading questions and which I have excluded). If there has been a narrowing of the gap recently, it has been slight.
The figures are taken from Anthony Wells’s brilliant UK Polling Report site, and I have added the four most recent polls as follows (most recent first):
Update: RF McCarthy has kindly redrawn the graph, starting in January 2013 (there were only eight polls in 2012), with fieldwork dates rather than a simple count along the horizontal axis. And he’s interpolated the trend line. Even though he has included the “leading” Panelbase survey (that’s the 51 per cent peak), there is less of a “surge” than in my effort.opinion polls, scottish independence, scottish referendum
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