UKIP leading in Euro elections race

John Rentoul

farage2 300x168 UKIP leading in Euro elections raceThe UK Independence Party is on course to win the largest share of the vote in the European Parliament elections in May, according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror.

UKIP 30% (+3)
Lab 28% (+5)
Con 21% (0)
Lib Dem 8% (-10)
Green 6% (+2)
Other 7% (0)

(Change since May 2013 in brackets.) This is the first poll to ask separate questions about the European elections for some time. The figures for European voting are based on the 38 per cent who say they are “absolutely certain” to vote in those elections – roughly comparable to the 34 per cent turnout in the last elections in 2009.

For the general election, however, Labour’s lead has slipped by two points to three, giving the Conservatives hope of closing the gap if they can hold the UKIP advance.

Con 32% (0)
Lab 35% (-2)
Lib Dem 9% (0)
UKIP 16% (+1)
Other 8% (+1)

(Change since last month in brackets.)

Nor has there been a significant increase in the numbers expecting Ed Miliband to be prime minister: 23 per cent think he will be PM after the next election (up 2 since December), and 39 per cent think he will not be (down 1), although 37 per cent say they don’t know.

The poll suggests the Conservatives are gaining ground on the economy, with the level of trust in David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions at the highest level (31 per cent) for two and a half years.

I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy
Agree 20% (+2)
Disagree 54% (0)

(Change since August 2011.)

I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy
Agree 31% (0)
Disagree 48% (0)

The Labour Party is right to plan to borrow more money and use it on large infrastructure projects in order to stimulate the economy
Agree 28%
Disagree 41%
Don’t know 31%

If Labour win the next General Election, I expect that I would pay more tax than if the Conservatives win it
Agree 35% (+5)
Disagree 32% (-2)
Don’t know 33% (-2)

If the Conservatives win the next General Election, I expect that I would pay more tax than if Labour win it
Agree 31% (+1)
Disagree 36% (+2)
Don’t know 33% (-3)

(Changes from December 2013 in brackets.)

The Government is cutting public spending in a way that is fair to every section of society
Agree 24%
Disagree 57%
Don’t know 19%

Rich people benefit more than people on middle incomes from this Government’s economic and tax policies
Agree 63%
Disagree 16%
Don’t know 20%

ComRes interviewed 2,001 GB adults online on 12 and 13 March 2014. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables on the ComRes website.

Tagged in: ,
  • JJ

    My advice to UKIP is to keep hitting Labour for their anti-British Europhile policies that are killing jobs, and soverignty!

  • LingoStu

    Excellent news!

  • Pacificweather

    I love the optimism of the British. About a third think they won’t be paying more tax after the next general election. It has never happened in my lifetime but, hey, it’s a sunny day. Let’s believe in the tooth fairy.

  • porkfright

    Anyone who thinks there is any substantial difference between the 3 main parties in dear old GB is either not paying enough attention- or something far worse.

  • greggf

    Good support for your post JJ.
    Did you read JR’s piece in Voices? There is an excellent post by someone called Christopher Hitchens that is well worth reading and expains why your one-liner is so apt – “the stupidity of the left” and a “metropolitan elite who have lost their connection” (despite Bob Crowe’s departure….sorry!).

  • JJ

    That’s probably true, but since Labour is currently in the lead (and the Tories under Cameron are basically finished at this point), it would strategically be important to hit them at this time, when people wake up and realize how treacherous they are, then you go back to hitting the Tories for betrayal.

  • Pingback: Peak UKIP Postponed | John Rentoul | Independent Eagle Eye Blogs

  • Pingback: UKIP at record high, Lib Dems at record low | John Rentoul | Independent Eagle Eye Blogs

Property search
Browse by area

Latest from Independent journalists on Twitter