Ibet: Stats Point To A Lay Of Arsenal As Manchester City Come To Town
Lay Arsenal at 3.8 with Betfair
Arsenal put in a storming end to last season to secure Champions League football but this time around they are losing momentum at just the wrong time. The general vibe coming from Arsene Wenger following his side’s 2-2 draw with Swansea at the Emirates midweek was that he’s given up on the Premier League and in fact is looking the other way at the likes of Everton and Spurs, who are still in contention for that valuable fourth spot.Chelsea knocked the stuffing out of Arsenal the previous weekend and they could do without a visit from Manchester City, who are starting to press on the accelerator.
City completely out-played rivals Manchester United at Old Trafford on Tuesday and although this is a slight step up in class, it looks a good time to be playing the North Londoners who have been hit by a couple of key injuries and look shorn of confidence right now. Pellegrini’s men are now three points behind title rivals Chelsea with a game in hand and the price for them to win the title of 10/11 available looks good value to me. City’s goal difference over the last eight games is +16 compared to -5 for Arsenal over the same period, and importantly they are the best team in the division against top half opposition with ten wins and two draws from 14 such games, with an outstanding +27 goal difference against top half teams. Arsenal’s goal difference this season against teams in the top half is -6 and it’s hard to imagine either their players or fans being confident coming into this. On the fixed odds Arsenal are best priced 27/10 with BetVictor with Manchester City 11/10 the draw at 13/5. However, I would prefer to keep the draw a winner for us and lay Arsenal with Betfair. The bookies expect Sergio Aguero to be back and make him favourite in the First Goalscorer betting at 9/2, with Edin Dzeko, Olivier Giroud and Alvaro Negrado all 13/2.
Only three favourites have won the Lincoln Handicap in the last 10 years, with 2009 winner Expresso Star the shortest price winner in that time at 10/3. Biggest outsider to triumph in the last decade was 2012 victory Brae Hill at 25/1, whilst last year’s winner Levitate was 20/1. The guys from betting comparison site Oddschecker.com reckon there may be similar value to be had at Doncaster on Saturday, and they are flagging up 20/1 shot Bronze Angel. The 2012 Cambridgeshire winner has a good record when fresh and last raced in November. If the going is good and quick, the Roger Charlton trained Captain Cat (10/1) will be worth looking at. He had the perfect warm-up race at Lingfield at the end of January and this 2lb higher mark shouldn’t prove a problem.Tagged in: Arsenal, Champions League, Manchester City
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