UKIP at record high, Lib Dems at record low

John Rentoul

farage Nigel 300x168 UKIP at record high, Lib Dems at record lowNigel Farage’s party has scored its highest poll rating yet in a ComRes poll, for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror tomorrow. Labour’s lead has increased to six points as Conservative support falls:

Conservative 29% (-3)
Labour 35% (0)
Lib Dem 7% (-2)
UKIP 20% (+4)
Other 9% (+1)

Change since last month’s ComRes online poll in brackets. The Lib Dem figure, 7 per cent, is the lowest recorded by ComRes online (series started in 2010), and the Conservative figure is the first time the party has been below 30 per cent this year.

Farage’s favourability rating has risen by seven points since February, possibly partly because of his performance in the debates with Nick Clegg, while David Cameron has fallen back to level with him:

Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following political leaders… (per cent “favourable”)

David Cameron 27% (-4)
Nigel Farage 27% (+7)
Ed Miliband 20% (-2)
Nick Clegg 12% (-1)

Change since ComRes online poll in February in brackets.

League table of Prime Ministers

Margaret Thatcher emerges at the top of the league of British prime ministers since 1964, with the current incumbent in second place and Harold Wilson, often regarded as a scheming fixer in his time, coming third. Sir John Major has waited a long time to outpoll Tony Blair, who defeated him in 1997. ComRes asked if people had a favourable or unfavourable view of the eight most recent premiers: our rankings show the percentage replying “favourable”. Note that the level of don’t knows was markedly higher for Wilson, Callaghan and Heath.

Margaret Thatcher 34%
David Cameron 27%
Harold Wilson 22%
John Major 20%
Tony Blair 19%
James Callaghan 16%
Gordon Brown 15%
Edward Heath 14%

The economy

The Favourability Rating for George Osborne, the Chancellor, has fallen by two points to 15% despite the generally well-received Budget last month.

Most people say that they are worse off than at the last election, but nearly twice as many say that Osborne has the right policies for full employment as say the same of Ed Balls:

My family is better off now than at the 2010 General Election four years ago
Agree 20%
Disagree 59%
Don’t know 21%

My personal finances are in a worse position than they were at the 2010 General Election four years ago
Agree 50%
Disagree 35%
Don’t know 16%

George Osborne, the Chancellor, has the right policies to return the country to full employment
Agree 27%
Disagree 39%
Don’t know 33%

Ed Balls, the Shadow Chancellor, has the right policies to return the country to full employment
Agree 14%
Disagree 47%
Don’t know 39%

Maria Miller

David Cameron showed a serious lack of leadership over his handling of Maria Miller’s expenses
Agree 62%
Disagree 15%
Don’t know 23%

Constituents should be able to force sitting MPs to defend their seat in a by-election if enough people sign a petition demanding it
Agree 59%
Disagree 14%
Don’t know 27%

A law that allowed constituents to sack their MP through signing a petition is a bad idea because it could be used by an MP’s political opponents
Agree 36%
Disagree 31%
Don’t know 33%

“Wisdom of crowds”

Ed Miliband is likely to be Prime Minister after the next election
Agree 23% (+2)
Disagree 39% (-1)
Don’t know 39% (0)

Change since December 2013 in brackets.

ComRes interviewed 2,003 GB adults online on 9 and 10 April 2014. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at ComRes.

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