ComRes “Battlebus” poll for The Independent points to Cameron holding on as PM next year
The figures are:
Con 33% (-4)
Lab 35% (-2)
LibDem 8% (-10)
UKIP 17% (+14)
Other 7% (+2)
Figures in brackets show changes since the 2010 general election results across the constituencies. These are the numbers to focus on. Labour is doing better than the Tories in these 40 seats, having fallen back less as UKIP has gained, but Labour has failed to close the gap on the Tories by enough to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street.
What matters is the change since the last election. If we apply the changes to the 2010 national shares of the vote, the numbers come out thus:
Con 33% (37% in general election, Great Britain)
Lab 28% (30%)
LibDem 14% (24%)
UKIP 17% (3%)
So this poll suggests, unlike previous marginals polling, that the Conservatives are doing better in the marginals than in the country as a whole, with the equivalent of a five-point lead.
Feed those national numbers into the Electoral Calculus uniform swingometer and it makes the Conservatives the largest party on 301 seats, a net loss of four, with Labour on 280, gaining 22, and the Liberal Democrats on 39, losing 18.
The poll has some interesting findings on the most important priorities when deciding who to vote for at a general election, and which party is most trusted on each:
1 Keeping down the cost of everyday items, such as food, energy and travel (Labour)
2 Controlling immigration (UKIP)
3 Managing the NHS (Labour)
4 Promoting economic growth (Conservatives)
But I think it is the change in voting intention since 2010 that counts, and this is not a great result for Labour a year before the general election.
The “Battlebus” is an excellent addition to the armoury of polling data. Congratulations to our partners at ComRes for designing it. We hope it will be a feature of Independent, i and Independent on Sunday election reporting over the next year, and that a London Battlebus might feature in the Evening Standard and London Live.
ComRes interviewed a representative sample of 1,030 GB adults living in the 40 most marginal constituencies where the Conservatives and Labour shared first and second place between them at the last General Election in 2010. Of these 40 constituencies, 25 currently have a Conservative MP and 15 currently have a Labour MP. Each constituency is represented in the sample equally, with results weighted to be representative of all adults in all 40 constituencies as a whole. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. More information on the ComRes website.Tagged in: comres, opinion polls
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