Ben Chu is The Independent's economics editor. Previously he was the newspaper's chief leader writer. He is the author of 'Chinese Whispers: Why everything you've heard about China is wrong' (2013). Follow him on Twitter: @BenChu_. Contact him on email via email@example.com
Yes, the UK economy has recovered. But the evidence of high fiscal multipliers when interest rates are low and trading partners are also retrenching suggests it would have done better since 2010 without the Chancellor’s front-loaded tax hikes and capital spending cuts.
What if the surplus was only 0.7% of GDP, rather than 1%, as the Tories’ rhetoric now seems to suggest? A simple extrapolation, using the Treasury’s calculations, suggests public debt would be £63bn higher in 2035-36.