None of this proves that the UK recovery is unsustainable. But there is nonetheless enough in these latest statistical breakdowns for policymakers to remain cautious.
Suppose for a moment that you faced an upcoming General Election in which the governing Conservatives were pretty unpopular, having presided over a Parliament of economic crisis, domestic confrontation and ideological polarisation.
But presume also that, during that contest, the Government was faced with a relatively unpopular Labour Party tainted by its past handling of economic [...]
I have a review of James Cronin’s new book, Global Rules, at Independent Voices. It is a high-quality history of the special relationship between America and Britain since the Second World War. It charts how the two countries shaped the rules of international trade and relations, and how this system survived the end of the [...]
Which is the appropriate baseline for evaluating the distributional impact of the Coalition’s fiscal policies? The answer to that question would seem to be obvious.
Ed Miliband’s leadership is boosted by the ComRes online poll for The Independent on Sunday tomorrow, shared with the Sunday Mirror, in which Labour holds a four-point lead over the Conservatives.
Lab 34% (0)
Con 30% (-1)
UKIP 19% (0)
Lib Dem 8% [...]
We have a ComRes poll in tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror. Last month’s poll showed a three-point Labour lead.
In addition to voting intention we have asked if people agree or disagree with the following statements:
Ed Miliband did the right thing by giving money to the person begging in the street
Ed Miliband [...]
If interest rates were to rise to around 2.5 per cent few savers would spend more. But, by contrast, many borrowers would spend less according to Bank of England research.
It has taken a century for Britain and India to commemorate more than 70,000 Indian troops who died fighting in World War One, and it has taken India over 60 years to decide fully to mark the fallen in that and later wars. Over 1.4m Indian volunteers served in Europe, Africa and elsewhere between 1914 [...]
A counterfactual economy without either monetary or fiscal loosening would probably have involved spiralling deflation and financial implosion, ending in total economic and social collapse.
India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has caused some consternation and controversy by saying to an audience of doctors and scientists last weekend that plastic surgery and genetic science existed and were in use thousands of years ago in ancient India. That, he said at the dedication of a hospital in Mumbai on October 25, was [...]
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