Net trade could easily slip from making zero contribution to growth to being an outright drag over the coming years.
Rents have been rising in real terms according to HomeLet, even though the Office for National Statistics says they are becoming more affordable. Why the divergence?
I’ve interviewed Paul Fisher, who this month attended his final Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting. He is now deputy head of the Bank’s Prudential Regulation Authority.
Here’s the full transcript below for those who are interested in monetary policy and financial regulation.
The collective day-to-day spending of all those other departments – Business, Home Office, Justice, Environment, Culture etc – would fall from £94.6bn in 2011/12 to just £29.7bn in 2018/19. That’s a real terms cut of 70%.
Two-thirds of children in poverty are from households where at least one parent is in work, compared to only two-fifths in 1996.
I think it’s reasonable to hope business investment growth will, this time, be sustained. But after the disappointments of recent years we should be wary of taking anything for granted.
Ian McCafferty is implicitly assuming that trend productivity growth has been lost forever and the only element to be explained is the shortfall relative to 2007. That makes the rest of his analysis, I would argue, inherently pessimistic.
Let’s not kid ourselves that we’re, yet, outstripping our European peers when it comes to exporting to China
* Backs a 50p top rate of tax, but not a mansion tax
* Admits that the merger of Lloyds and HBOS during the financial crisis was a mistake
* Treasury resisted pressure from former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to put more capital into RBS
* Outlines why he disagrees with the present Governor, Mark Carney, on the desirability of rising debt to GDP levels
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