Eagle Eye

Election Predictions, Eagle Eye

Election Predictions

The Independent on Sunday last weekend published the results of Iain Dale’s seat-by-seat assessment of likely outcomes at the general election.
Two weekends before, we published a Poll of Pollsters, aggregating the predictions, where they were prepared to make them, of the 10 bosses of the active polling companies in Great Britain.
The weekend before that, I [...]

By | Eagle Eye | Saturday, 24 January 2015 at 12:23 pm

Tory party more favourably regarded than Labour, Eagle Eye

Tory party more favourably regarded than Labour

More people feel favourable towards the Conservative Party than to Labour according to a ComRes opinion poll for The Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror. Despite the common view that voters prefer the Labour brand to the Tory one if the qualities of leaders is left to one side, 29 per cent say [...]

By | Eagle Eye | Saturday, 17 January 2015 at 7:29 pm

Poll alert, Eagle Eye

Poll alert

We have a ComRes opinion poll in The Independent on Sunday tomorrow, shared with the Sunday Mirror. I will post the results here this evening. The full tables will be on the ComRes website.
As well as voting intention (we had a one-point Labour lead in the last ComRes online poll last month), we repeated our [...]

By | Eagle Eye | Saturday, 17 January 2015 at 12:57 pm

The Secret Diaries of Sir Michael Barber, Eagle Eye

The Secret Diaries of Sir Michael Barber

Great news from my new academic home, King’s College, London.
Sir Michael Barber (pictured), the directing mind behind public service reform in the second term of the Blair government, has agreed to publish his diaries as part of a PhD thesis to be written by one of our stars, Michelle Clement.
Sir Michael, head of the Prime [...]

By | Eagle Eye | Thursday, 15 January 2015 at 2:40 pm

No victory lap for George Osborne, Chunomics

No victory lap for George Osborne

Yes, the UK economy has recovered. But the evidence of high fiscal multipliers when interest rates are low and trading partners are also retrenching suggests it would have done better since 2010 without the Chancellor’s front-loaded tax hikes and capital spending cuts.

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Wednesday, 14 January 2015 at 7:52 pm

A question for Danny Alexander, Chunomics

A question for Danny Alexander

If you object to more cuts “after the books are balanced” why did you not refuse to sign up for budget surpluses in 2018-19 and 2019-20?

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Monday, 12 January 2015 at 12:26 pm

Footnote on TV debates, Eagle Eye

Footnote on TV debates

Further to my article about the TV debates in today’s Independent on Sunday, there is one possibility I didn’t have space to discuss. This is the much-canvassed “empty chair” tactic, which is that the broadcasters should threaten to go ahead with the debates leaving an empty chair for David Cameron. Either to put pressure on [...]

By | Eagle Eye | Sunday, 11 January 2015 at 3:24 pm

George Osborne’s £63bn borrowing blowout?, Chunomics

George Osborne’s £63bn borrowing blowout?

What if the surplus was only 0.7% of GDP, rather than 1%, as the Tories’ rhetoric now seems to suggest? A simple extrapolation, using the Treasury’s calculations, suggests public debt would be £63bn higher in 2035-36.

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Friday, 9 January 2015 at 1:12 pm

Why we’re still feeling the economic pain despite the recovery, Chunomics

Why we’re still feeling the economic pain despite the recovery

Here’s why, despite the fact that the economy is growing relatively strongly and the cost of living is falling, many people still feel worse off than they did six years ago.

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Tuesday, 23 December 2014 at 4:54 pm

Labour’s cuts really would be less deep, Chunomics

Labour’s cuts really would be less deep

Disregard the conventional wisdom. The Coalition’s penciled-in plans entail considerably more austerity than Labour’s do.

By | Chunomics, Eagle Eye | Monday, 22 December 2014 at 1:47 pm

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