Hong Kong has found Thaksin in genial mood, ahead of what promises to be a frenetic time in the country from which he has been absent from since September 2006, when the military coup took place while he was in New York to attend a United Nations meeting. Thaksin lunched with his son on Wednesday and 30 close supporters who had flown from Bangkok to join him and accompany him back. Thaksin feels at home in Chinese territory: his family originated there.

But what about the money? That is the cry from City fans. How much of the estimated £800m frozen by the military junta which removed Thaksin will he get his hands on – if any at all? A fair chunk, it seems, though the more prescient question is "how soon?".

The body which decides is the Asset Examination Committee (AEC), created by the military junta but which – according to political analysts – is unlikely to prevail against Thaksin at a time when the political mood in the country is with Thaksin. The wind has been blowing in Thaksin’s direction since the PPP, his proxy party, triumphed on 23 December and though a vote-rigging scandal has tainted that success this week (Yongyuth Tiyapairat, PPP deputy leader, was removed from office for allegedly bribing local officials to canvass for votes for the party ahead of polls) that will not materially affect the party’s position.

Instead, it is the AEC which finds itself on the ropes. It now relies on the PPP and its leader Samak Sundaravej for money and none of that has been forthcoming. Sundaravej campaigned on a promise to dissolve the AEC and, though that has not happened yet, its days seem numbered. "The military junta had a year to prosecute Thaksin and didn't. Their chance has gone," one academic tells me.

Thaksin must tread carefully, however. There is plenty of popular support for him, despite the claims of Human Rights Watch that he is a "human rights abuser of the worst kind". (The cabbies of Bangkok were offering free trips to greet him at the airport.) But the national Thai media and intelligensia feels differently and that is why the mood in the Thai papers ahead of his return was subdued. This was, the papers implied, a non-story – even though the BBC and CNN were preparing to take seats on the place that flew him back.

The PPP will not alienate the sceptics by making Thaksin's return too straightforward and in the words of one of his aides allow him to "walk straight up to a cashpoint and withdraw the lot". Chulalongkorn University’s associate professor Giles Ungphakorn is among those who believe his pursuit of the cash may be drawn out. "There will be bargaining," he tells me.

In the final outcome - probably before the summer transfer window - expect City to get some of the money they want, though Thaksin’s comments in Hong Kong last December suggest he does not belong to the Roman Abramovich school of big spenders. "Normal revenue from TV, sponsors, kit sales, ticket sales is never enough," he complained back then. Securitisation of gate receipts - making payments against ticket sales to bondholders in return for investment in the club - is the solution he may seek.